Jobs data revives fears of Fed's reaction time to slow economy

Job gains increased slightly in February, as the unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.1%, both figures increasing more than economists expected, data released on Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed.

Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick and RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas join Seana Smith and Madison Mills on Morning Brief to discuss the fresh economic data print and what it signals about the US economy and the Federal Reserve's next move.

Sosnick says while the jobs print could move the market, "it's different when there's news flow." US stocks are under pressure recently as investors weigh uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies.

The strategist tells Yahoo Finance, "There is just a general sense that the economy is not as strong as people had hoped or thought it was," noting shifting expectations that the Fed will cut rates more than once in 2025 as "fear" that "the economy slows faster than the Fed is able to react," returns, weighing on things a bit."

00:00 Speaker A

Yeah, when you take a look at some of these other sectors as well, healthcare adding 52,000 jobs during the month, financial activities adding 21,000, transport warehousing adding 18,000. I guess, Steve, the question is whether or not this is enough in order to not only regain some of that lost momentum, but keep that momentum. And I know you're saying much of that's going to be driven by the headline news and what we get throughout the day, obviously in coming days and weeks and months. But how are you thinking about how large of a sell-off we have had, the fact that the Nasdaq is in correction territory? Maybe this is enough to spark some of that buying activity.

00:52 Steve

It can be. I mean, you know, certainly, certainly a lot of the metrics, the technical metrics show us being a bit oversold. Um but you know, this is it's different when there's sort of news flow. This wasn't really just sort of like, let's let's give up, let's give up a little bit of the gains. This there has been some news flow. One of the other issues you see is I think there is just a general sense that the economy is not as strong as people had hoped or thought it was. Remember, about six weeks ago, the talk was for one rate cut in 2025. Now we're now we're looking at three or more. Um and so this is there's a big change there and stock markets do ultimately react more to the economy than they do to the rate cut picture. And I think that is one of the things we have to work through. I think I think people want a little more clarity on on the state of the economy because I think people got a little spooked.

02:07 Speaker A

I would think that this would take some of that pressure off the Fed.

02:11 Steve

It it certainly it certainly does. And I think my fear actually is more that the Fed is slow to react because I think the Fed is waiting to see really the full effects of of, you know, the federal government moves, whether it's tariffs, how how are they supposed if we can't plan, they can't either. And I think there is the risk that that the economy slows faster than the Fed is able to react. That, I'm not saying necessarily is the base case, but I think that fear has entered into the market um and is weighing on things a bit.

02:54 Speaker A

I think there's some evidence of that slowing in this print, too. When you take a look at the U6 underemployment rate soaring to 8%, the highest level since October of 2021. Joe, I know you're looking under the hood at some of these.

03:12 Joe

Yeah, and there's a reason why that happened because 1.3 million people who normally who are working part-time and looking for work weren't because of the weather. And the 404,000, again, who weren't who were normally full-time workers, just weren't working. This actually probably understates the strength of the labor market to be honest with you. So when I see the market setting up for three rate cuts, Steve, I'm thinking, maybe not, guys.

04:01 Steve

Okay.

04:02 Joe

Yeah, well, we'll have to wait and see what the tariffs do on the margin. I mean, we're hearing from corporate CEOs, they're going to pass prices through quite quickly. We're not going to see the same reaction function out of the corporate sector that we did in 2018. They're moving and those in many cases, they're hiking prices ex ante, even before they show up.

Brusuelas pushes back on the idea that the Fed will deliver multiple rate cuts this year, saying the jobs report "actually probably understates the strength of the labor market."

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here.

This post was written by Naomi Buchanan.