Iran launched a ballistic missile attack against Israel last week, escalating fears of rising tensions in the Middle East if Israel were to retaliate. Michael Froman, President of the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. Trade Representative during the Obama Administration, joins Catalysts to discuss his outlook on this development.

Froman acknowledges that the US government understands "Israel feels the need to retaliate." He outlines three potential strategies Israel could pursue: targeting military installations, striking economic assets, or attacking Iran's nuclear program. According to Froman, "Israel is trying to weigh which is the most effective deterrent for future Iranian activity."

Regarding oil (CL=F, BZ=F) prices, which have seen a "modest" increase due to the conflict, Froman points out that "we have to remember they're under 80 dollars a barrel which is pretty modest considering all the tensions in the Middle East." Given this context, he suggests that if Israel were to retaliate, "there's still room to the upside" for oil prices.

When asked about which U.S. presidential candidate — Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump — would be better equipped to handle the conflict, Froman states, "I think with regard to the Middle East there's actually a fair amount of continuity between the two." He adds, "both are gonna stand firmly in support of Israel and its security and making sure that it has what it needs to achieve that."

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This post was written by Angel Smith