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And joining us now for a deeper dive into the escalating tensions in the Middle East. We got Michael Froman. He is the president of the Council on Foreign Relations and former US trade representative under President Barack Obama. Michael, it's great to have you in studio. Thanks for coming in. So, I want to start on the breaking news from this morning out of the region, as we've been discussing so far. Biden urging Israel to not hit any energy infrastructure in the region. If you were still part of the White House in this administration, what would you be advising the president to do?

Well, I think they understand that Israel feels the need to retaliate. And so, there are three categories. They can go after military targets as they did last time. They go after economic targets like the oil fields, or they can go after the nuclear program of Iran. Very much. Everyone's trying to discourage them from going after the nuclear program. I think Israel is trying to weigh which is the most effective deterrent for future Iranian activity. Uh you know, right now Hezbollah has been Iran's, what we call second strike capability, that they always felt that if Israel were to attack Iran, they could use Hezbollah to attack Israel. But Hezbollah has now been significantly downgraded, degraded by Israel in terms of killing off most of its leadership and degrading a lot of its military capabilities. So, Iran is trying to figure out how to deter further Israel activity if they don't have Hezbollah to rely on.

Is there any way to deter really further escalation within the region, given the fact that neither side or any of the sides don't seem to be backing down at this point?

I think at each step, there are efforts to try and convince both sides to escalate in as proportional way as possible. So, to minimize the escalation. But as you said, at each step, it seems to be going further and further. Remember about a week ago that Iran sent 200 ballistic missiles to Israel. Not just drones, but these are missiles that can get there in 15 minutes. They were largely a failure. And I thought that's to some surprise for Iran. Now, the question is, what else do they have left that they can really attack Israel with?

Well, what could happen here if it escalates not just between Israel and Iran, but also more broadly in the region? What if we see impacts to the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, uh specifically with regards to energy prices too?

Well, already we've seen the US directly engage. Our Centcom forces have attacked the Houthis over the last week or so. The Houthis were the ones sort of trying to interrupt trade in the Red Sea. On oil prices, yes, they're up about 10% this week. But we have to remember they're under $80 a barrel, which is pretty modest considering all the tensions in the Middle East. When Russia went into Ukraine, it was a much higher spike in oil prices than what we're seeing right now. So, there probably still is some room on the upside, particularly if Israel attacks Iranian oil capabilities. But there's a lot of excess capacity in Saudi Arabia, in the United States and elsewhere, and demand for oil is down, particularly given China's slowdown.

Just given the importance though of Strait of Hormuz and maybe it isn't too likely or I guess the question for you is, how likely is it that we could potentially see a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz just given the fact that I believe 30% of of of the oil flows through that region? So, it could have severe ramifications for the price of crude.

If Iran were to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz to prevent both its oil and the oil of its neighbors from getting out, that could have a significant impact. It's not particularly in their interest to do so, but but it could have a significant impact. Iran itself is only about 4 million barrels a day out of a global market of about 100. And so there's already more excess capacity just waiting to be put on the market in Saudi Arabia than that 4 million barrels.

We're also getting closer to the election, of course, and we are at the one-year anniversary of October 7th, uh the attack led by Hamas. I'm curious from your perspective, what should voters know about the single biggest difference between the two candidates that we have the choice of and how they would handle this conflict that certainly is not going away anytime soon?

I think with regard to the Middle East, there's actually a fair degree of continuity between the two. President Trump started the Abraham Accords of bringing moderate Arab states into relations with Israel and the Biden administration tried to continue that with Saudi Arabia. Both are going to stand firmly in support of Israel and its security, making sure that it has what it needs to to achieve that. And both want to minimize, I think the Democratic candidate has been probably more vocal in focusing on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the plight of the Palestinians, and the importance of a path towards a two-state solution.

Do you see that at all affecting funding for Israel, then, if Harris were to be elected?

I think the I think the United States is is likely to stand very firmly behind Israel. There's some conversations in Congress about conditioning some of the aid on whether it's used in Gaza, some of the large ammunitions, but I think as a general matter, the US stands firmly behind Israel security.

What do you think is the biggest issue on foreign affairs that the next president is going to inherit?

Well, the world's a very messy place. I mean, clearly, um it's a much more complicated environment to operate in than it's been for the last 80 years. And so I think the next president's going to have to figure out how do we assert US leadership, have as much influence as possible, while making sure we're addressing the concerns at home. And I think either president's going to have to deal with those sets of issues.

All right. Michael Froman, thanks so much for joining us here in studio. Council on Foreign Affairs, foreign relations president. Thanks so much.