Amid growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a historic port strike, and other global macroeconomic uncertainties, Erik Hirsch, Hamilton Lane’s co-CEO, joins Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton on Market Domination to outline his expectations for the market.
“In terms of where we sit today, the economy looks very strong. The job numbers [are] a little soft, but we're also seeing layoffs very soft as well and so we're seeing a resilient consumer. We're still seeing strong spending. We're seeing a continued positive outlook for the CEOs of our businesses. So that's where we are today,” Hirsch tells Yahoo Finance.
He adds, “The picture you're painting, though, is very uncertain about what tomorrow may look like. And so certainly what's happening in the Middle East and what's happening with the ports. All of that is a bit concerning.”
Ahead of the November election, “There's no question that on some levels we're seeing people simply deferring a decision or saying, ‘ask me in two months.’ Hopefully, the election is settled at that point, a little bit more transparency on where developments are occurring in the Middle East, and so in that case, if they have the luxury to do that, then that's what they're doing. In other cases, they're still seeing strong spending. And strong demand for their products. And so it is still pedal to the metal, and they're not slowing down.”
The CEO says, “An unsettled election, I think, certainly weighs on us. I mean, if you come out of this with an Electoral College tie or a question of how long are we waiting for results, I think all of that could create some real uncertainty in the market and also in our society. So we're certainly keeping a close eye on sort of how the election is proceeding. And again, what's happening in the Middle East with escalations, I think, is also very concerning whether that's going to impact oil pricing or whether there is a contagion effect on a military basis. I think that is also something that we're keeping a close eye on.”
Hirsch expects an uptick in initial public offering (IPO) and merger and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the first quarter of 2025 after the market knows the election results and there is more clarity about the Middle East conflict. “The big caveat, though, is back to what we're talking about. This presumes that the port impact is sort of short-lived, which I think it will be, and that we don't see massive spillover in the Middle East, which I don't think we will see.”
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This post was written by Naomi Buchanan.