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Stocks are experiencing a broad-based pullback, with major indices (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) trading in the red as markets transition into September — a month historically known for weakness. Gradient Investments Portfolio Manager Keith Gangl joins Market Domination to discuss his market outlook.
Gangl reassures that the current sell-off is not cause for alarm. Despite a 2% pullback, markets are still up 19.5% for the year. He attributes the sell-off to profit-taking and, with the jobs report on the horizon, advises: "I think that everybody just needs to take a deep breath and kind of watch what's going on."
As the Magnificent Seven tech stocks are currently underperforming the S&P 500, Gangl considers it "wise" for investors to move cash out of Big Tech names and into other areas of the market. While acknowledging these stocks' role in driving market gains, he suggests investors maintain underweight positions in the current market dynamics.
"It's normal for the markets to pull back, we'd like to go up straight 7 to 8% of the year, but it doesn't work that way," Gangl states.
Stocks are sinking here and the selling is accelerating into the closing bell with stocks trading near the lows of the day. Let's bring in Keith Gangle, Gradient Investments portfolio manager. Keith, it is good to see you. Listen, uh, we know Keith, historically, September is tough to be long in this market. I'm I'm just curious what you make of today's trade. What explains the sell-off we're seeing Keith and what do you see ahead?
Yeah, we take it take a step back and take the whole year for example, we're up 19 and a half percent going into today. So seeing a sell off, yes, two percent is a lot, but again, we're up 19 and a half percent. Last year's up 25%. The thing I don't see a real cause for the sell off here. So I think it's probably a little bit of profit taking going on here right now, but we'll wait and see. Obviously we saw Nvidia as a big data point last week. We got the jobs report. I think it's going to be the driver this week. So I think everybody just needs to take a deep breath and kind of watch what's going on.
Um Keith, you mentioned, of course, that this is being led downward by Nvidia, a lot of the big tech trade. Um and there was an interesting chart that that Kevin Gordon of Schwab pointed out recently, which is that we've seen this underperformance now on a monthly basis of the Magnificent 7. Basically for two years, the Mag 7 have outperformed the S&P 500 on a monthly basis. That has changed the past two months, where last month, the S&P was up. The Mag 7 Total Return Index was down. So we've all been waiting, right, for these other 493 stocks to recover. It now seems to be happening, but how long can that be sustained? How long can an overall S&P 500 performance be sustained without the participation of the Mag 7?
Oh yeah, look at it again. As of year-to-date performance, as of last week Friday, we're up 19 and a half percent. And you just pointed out the last two months, the Mag 7 actually underperformed and the market's, you know, almost at all time high here. So they can do it. Obviously we don't like to see the Mag 7 massively underperform, but I think it's wise for people to take a little bit of profits out of their Mag 7 and try to put in other companies and I think that's exactly what's going on with the market. And again, there's such a big market cap there about, you know, 30 some percent of the overall S&P 500. So we want those names to perform, but I do think it's wise to take a little bit off, maybe go underweight if that's your benchmark and kind of put those names in otherware.
Keith, I'm interested, too. There was a good piece in the journal today. I don't know if you saw it. And the headline was interesting, Keith. It said, Americans are really, really bullish on stocks. And points out Keith in the piece by one measure of bullish sentiment among investors, hovering around its highest levels of the past year. I'm just curious Keith, when you see stories like that, when you see sentiment indicators like that, is that gives you concerned at all just as a contrarian take?
Yeah, sure it does. It's one of those things again. Market's strong last year, strong this year. You're starting to see people starting to chase performance. We advocate against not doing that. You should have a risk tolerance of your overall plan. So if you are a 60-40 client, 60% equity, 40% bonds after the last year and a half move, we advocate to rebalance down your. Maybe you're at 75% equities, you need to move that back down to 60. Again, it's normal for the markets to pull back. I mean, we'd like to go up straight 7-8% a year, but it doesn't work that way.
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This post was written by Angel Smith