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Home builders are feeling better heading into 2025. Confidence rose to a four-month high in October, according to a survey from the National Association of Home Builders. Let's turn to Jim Tobin, who's the National Association of Home Builders CEO, Jim. Great to have you here. First and foremost, just take us into what's driving the home builder confidence right now, as we did see it edge higher.

I think with the fallen interest rates, the Federal Reserve signaling that they are on a path to easing monetary policy, I think is, is really giving our members and our survey members in particular, uh, feeling that we are, we're on the backside of the bad news and that we are looking forward to a lower interest rate environment, certainly for mortgage rates in the future, and that the market's going to come back strong.

With that in mind, and the market coming back strong for home builders, it's really hinging on as well, the type of incentives that might be put forward for a lot of the new home buyers that are trying to figure out the the best calculus around purchasing either an existing home, or waiting for an existing home to come on the market, or purchasing a new home and waiting for the build out there. What is the calculus that you believe is being run and how much do you believe that new home buyers might even be waiting for after the election to see if that $25,000 that's promised by the Harris campaign comes to fruition?

Well, I, I think we have seen, uh, discounts by home builders as well as rate buy downs offered by home builders to get people from a mortgage rate in, in the low sixes where we're kind of hovering right now into the fives. We really think anything with a, a crooked number on it really seems to be a driver for the marketplace. So those, those incentives, uh, especially those rate buy downs into the 5% range, uh, really is what's, what, what we're seeing new, new home builders offer to get people into product. We still haven't seen the loosening in the existing market yet, but that's coming. Uh, we probably think that, that, that comes into effect really in 2025 as rates continue to fall over the course of the next year. Uh, as far as waiting for the political, uh, the political winds to, to give us some, uh, some sort of certainty, I think that is very much a part of the market. I travel all over the country, I talked to builders, uh, and home buyers everywhere. And, and there really is this kind of, uh, uh, there's this constriction in the market because of the political environment right now. Knowing who's going to be at the top of the, of the, of the economy and what, what kind of philosophy is going to take, take, uh, take hold, uh, as far as the next four years. I, I think it's really kind of put people in a bit of a pause here, even though rates are falling. As far as the incentives offered by the campaigns, sure, there are people that are going to wait, uh, to see if, uh, we get, we get down payment assistance, we get some new tax credits. My advice to anybody listening to this who's thinking waiting on the sidelines for Congress to act, don't base your plans on whether Congress acts. A lot of these proposals, uh, still have to be flushed out by the new administration as well as work their way through Congress. So we're a long way from seeing those proposals actually become law and get into the marketplace.

You know, I wonder, given the, the critical position that you hold and the consistent data that NAHB is able to publish, as well as speaking to all of the different home builders out there, you know, have you been able to speak to both campaigns? And what have you heard and what, what grade would you give either the Trump campaign or the Harris campaign, as they're trying to figure out what the reality of the home building environment looks like post-election?

I'd give them both A's, uh, to be completely honest with you. I think the fact that the centerpiece of their economic pitch is housing, and not just housing, housing supply. That is a critical, critical piece for us. I've been waiting my entire career to have the top of the political tickets talk about housing supply, and, and both former President Trump and Vice President Harris are doing that. And, and their, their conversations are trickling down into House and Senate races, as well as local races. So housing really is at the forefront, not only of voters' minds, but of the candidates themselves. So I give them an A. We can have a debate on, on the policies themselves. I like the policies that talk about adding more supply. So opening federal lands to potential development, I think is a really important piece that will add to supply. Vice President Harris's plan to offer a tax credit for builders to build to the first time or first generation market, I like that one a lot too. I don't like rent control. I think anything that suppresses prices artificially and gets federal intervention into the marketplace, that scares me. But I think overall, the fact that we've got both candidates talking about housing really earns them a lot of credibility in our builders' minds and gives us opportunity that no matter who wins the White House, housing is going to be the top of their agenda.