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Well, as we were discussing the so-called sell America trade gaining steam this morning with the dollar down against every other G10 currency. But our next guest says he's not fully sold on the long-term flight to international stocks. Joining us with more, Krishna Memani, Lafayette College's chief investment officer. Krishna, great to have you on. I know that you don't buy the thesis that somehow foreign equities are going to do better on an absolute basis here. So what should investors do then if the sell America trade might be sticking around for the short term?

Well, so I I I think that's an interesting challenge in that, uh, the environment right now is not good for equities on a global basis. So maybe international stocks do relatively better than US stocks, but all of them are going down in the current environment. So for you to be a buyer of equities, you basically have to make a bet on this tariff threat and the ensuing, uh, potential for a recession that is on the that is a cloud hanging over the market, uh, fading in some way. And I don't think that is likely in the near term. So looking for places to hide in equity markets is probably, uh, not the wisest thing to do. I think cash or bonds probably ends up being the winner at least for in the near term. I I from a longer term perspective, it definitely have a recession, it definitely will be bonds a lot more than equities or even cash.

How much of a recession probability should investors be baking into their own portfolio, their own investment thesis right now? How much are you baking into your investment thesis?

So again, that's that's actually an interesting question as well. The economy right now has enough momentum for it to carry through reasonably well until the middle of the year. Uh, you know, things are softening, but there was enough, uh, juice being provided through deficit spending and the momentum the momentum that we came into the year. So I I think if there is a recession, that's probably in the second half of the year far more than far more likely than in the in the in the summer or earlier than that. So I I think and and in the interim, the the president may kind of change his mind as he's, uh, he's akin to doing. So I I think kind of getting out of equities all together because of recession fear, and I know I'm talking both sides of my mouth right now, but I think that is not prudent either. The bottom line is having a significant view one way or the other is a fool's fool's game right now.

I think though that you point to the challenge that so many of our sources have talked about on the show, Krishna, is that there's just not a lot of opportunity for conviction, no matter where you look. And I heard you mentioning cash and bonds, which are also obviously, especially this morning, experiencing some pain as well. Do you have faith in US Treasury still, or would you be looking for bonds more globally?

No, I I think if you're going to as a US investor, if you're going to invest in bonds, kind of trying to shelter yourself, uh, uh, overseas and foreign bonds just hasn't worked out right. Uh, you know, I know EM bonds are doing well, but if we have a recession in the US, the likelihood that the EM bonds are sheltered is just, uh, is just not possible in my judgment. So I I think if you're going to hide somewhere and you you have a little bit of conviction around, uh, a potential recession, US bonds is where it is. Otherwise, just stay in cash, uh, at the margin because as I said before, having a lot of conviction in any viewpoint, uh, you know, earnings revisions, uh, earnings growth trajectory, multiple surviving, uh, not going into a recession is just, you know, anything can change very, very quickly.