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For more on the markets, joining us now is Bob Elliot, Unlimited co-founder, CEO, CIO. Bob, it is good to see you. So, uh, you know, politics front and center here, Bob. The big news of course, Trump does officially pick Senator Vance as his running mate. Running mate, the Republican National Convention is underway and investors are, you know, placing their bets, Bob, on who they think is going to take the White House. I know you've been, you've been following this very closely, Bob. What do you make of it? What what are you telling your clients right now?

Well, when we look at what's going on in the market action today and really, um, since, uh, what happened over the weekend, uh, where we saw an increase in odds that Trump would be elected, uh, to the presidency, we're seeing market action largely consistent with those increased odds. And so, if you go line by line in terms of the market action, what we're seeing is actually gold as one of the best-performing assets, uh, in the market, reflective of the fact that we're likely to get large deficits ahead, uh, as the Republicans have a higher probability of controlling all three chambers of the US government. We're seeing bonds sell off, uh, as a function of, uh, growth likely being stronger and having those larger deficits and higher inflation. And we're seeing, uh, some stock rally, but not that much stock rally, uh, in in the market reflecting the fact that it's going to be challenging, uh, to keep up this level of growth with with those level of deficits and upward pressure on interest rates. So you put that all together. It's not necessarily a great environment for overall asset prices, but it does favor gold and stocks relative to bonds. And one last thing to highlight is, of course, it's been favorable to Bitcoin, uh, as the Trump administration has, uh, pivoted and indicated a positive stance towards, uh, various crypto assets and that's likely to be part of the reason why Bitcoin's rallying here as well.

Bob, um, I I can as we continue to sort of parse out what each candidate's chances means for the markets, I keep going back to 2016, but there are lots of other examples where market participants thought that a candidate who then won the presidency was going to mean one thing, and it didn't necessarily mean that thing. So as you are trying to strategize based on all of this, how are you sort of trying to factor in the uncertainty, uh, level here?

Well, I think there's still a fair amount of uncertainty in terms of, um, what exactly the policy mix is going to be. I think we're in a bit of a different circumstance than where we were back in 2016. We have a track record of policies, uh, measures that, uh, both administrations have pursued, uh, over the course of their time in office. And we have pretty well-developed, uh, perspective in terms of what incremental policies will be. So I think we're in a lot better shape, a lot less uncertainty than maybe existed before. I think probably the increased uncertainty starts to emerge as we start to get to a higher probability that the Republicans control all three, uh, branches of government. In that case, there's a lot less constraints on policy making than may have otherwise, uh, existed in more divided government. And as a result, uh, certain policies might be pursued that wouldn't have otherwise been pursued or even talked about during the campaign period. And so, I think it's very important to recognize that probably uncertainty increases as the probability of, uh, full control, uh, also increases.

Is your sense, Bob, um, you mentioned their divided government. Is your sense markets would would actually prefer divided government?

Well, I think there's, uh, a balance in terms of, uh, you know, a divided government's a lot more certain. Uh, whether it's, uh, led by a Republican administration or Democratic administration, uh, I think there's a lot of, uh, you know, pretty much, uh, business as usual would likely transpire if we have a divided government. I think the challenges, we get to a bit more uncertainty, uh, as control of all three chambers emerges. And so, I think that's the the the balance is probably, uh, more increase of control by the Republicans would lead to even more deficit spending, and particularly corporate beneficial deficit spending. Uh, but there's some uncertainty about that. I think, uh, what we're seeing is the stock market not really rallying a ton on the incremental news is a reflection of that balance of increased uncertainty, more favorable policy, but also increased uncertainty.

Um, Bob, if you, um, were given the factors of the presidential election, and I guess let's call it the election overall because of the downmarket, uh, ballots also, um, earnings, and the Federal Reserve's, uh, interest rate cutting cycle, like how do you wait each of those when it comes to your strategy?

Well, probably the the biggest thing that that's going to determine how markets transpire, at least for the next, let's say, three months up until the election, is going to be how earnings and growth transpire relative to expectations. And I think one of the challenges that we see in this market right now is that there's very high growth expectations and very high earnings expectations pencilled out through the end of the year. Something like 17% year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 as a whole is expected by the fourth quarter. That's going to be pretty challenging to achieve in an environment where we see aggregate growth softer, uh, than it was, you know, late last year, and where actual earnings growth, you know, has been closer to flat over the last couple of years rather than up. And so, I think that probably that mismatch where maybe growth doesn't end up coming in nearly as strong as what's expected or priced into the equity market. That's probably the most important dynamic that's going to transpire. Uh, once we get closer to the election, uh, which is, you know, is a few months ahead, um, if there is more uncertainty, then that will probably be a more dominant force, but in the interim, it's really about how the economy holds up relative to those expectations.

Well, uh, we'll get more information on all of those factors in the coming weeks and months. Good to see you, Bob. Thank you.