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Is this the end of globalism Ian? Or do you think is there the potential for the rest of the world to kind of throw up their hands and say we don't really want to deal with the US in the same way that we have done in the past and we're going to forge our own trade agreements and if America eventually wants to be a part of them, that's all great, but if not, then we're going to do business with each other and see how the US likes it.

Well, uh there are two ways to answer this. Uh I mean the negative response is that for the last 20 years, there have been a lot of people that have talked about um a derisking from China because China doesn't have rule of law, they're opaque. The state makes decisions that can be arbitrary and capricious. They don't respect intellectual property, all those things. So everyone's talked about how they can derisk from China. I have had so many phone calls with leaders of governments and with companies all day today, um about derisking from the United States. So you aren't now, that is the new term of art, and countries and companies around the world are going to find ways to try to reduce costs and get risk out of their system by having less exposure long-term to the US market. That's the bad news. The good news is that the United States is in a position of great power, and there are lots of ways that you can't derisk from the United States. So look at the hyperscalars, look at the big technology companies. I mean, the Europeans are not going to now say, how do we go crush meta? You know, or, or Google, uh and why not? Because they can't replace it with anything. There's no substitution effect. The Japanese can't say, oh, let's go do a deal with China and coordinate with the Chinese against the Americans, because the Japanese can't leave the American security umbrella. So there are a lot of places where you just need to keep working with the US no matter what, and of course, the size of the American market is important. It's not as big as the European collective common market, but it's still pretty damn big. And so ultimately, there are a lot of countries that are going to try to find ways to get along with this new environment, however arbitrarily uh and unilaterally uh driven uh by President Trump.

Ian, what about um China specifically? Because I saw headlines today. They're already talking countermeasures if the US doesn't cancel these tariffs. What could countermeasures actually look like? You know, I mean, what do you actually expect to see from Beijing?

Well, I'll tell you what I don't expect to see. Uh I I don't expect a Tic Tok deal to get approved by the Chinese anytime soon because why would they be making a gift to the US when Trump is throwing a three handle on top of these new tariffs. Um and he's saying, well, maybe I'll take a point or two off. I mean, we are very, very far from a breakthrough, from a US-China, you know, sort of new Nixon environment. No matter how many people are speculating on it. But the Chinese economy is performing poorly. They weren't going to hit their 5% growth number even before Trump came to town. Um they're having huge problems with consumer demand and consumer sentiment. They're having huge problems with regional indebtedness with all of their provinces, essentially in receivership. And that gets much harder when the Americans not only hit China, but also hit all the other countries that are passed through from Chinese exports into the United States, like the Philippines, like Indonesia, like Vietnam, right? So when you add that up, the Chinese, yes, they need to respond and there will be a response. There will be retaliation, but it will not be tit for tat. Where the Chinese can really retaliate is by taking advantage of American un lack of interest in leadership. Uh the fact that the Americans want to be unilateralist, the Chinese will be like, great, you want to pull out of the Paris climate accord, we'll be the drivers of post-carbon energy transition. We'll be the most important country at the cop summits going forward. US wants to leave the World Health Organization, great. We'll be the most important country in the World Health Organization. We'll call the shots there. If US wants to stop paying dues for the UN, great. We'll be the most powerful country with influence over the United Nations. US wants to stop spending on USAID, great. We'll be the most important across the world and the global south. Myanmar has an earthquake. Remember when Indonesia had the tsunami? The Chinese failed. The Americans had boots on the ground. Myanmar has a massive earthquake and thousands die. The Americans do nothing, and the Chinese are on the ground. So reputational power, soft power, diplomatic influence with countries around the world, the Chinese see themselves as long-term beneficiaries of what the Americans are doing right now, and that is an opportunity for them.