In This Article:
Gold prices (GC=F) continue their record climb above $3,000 per ounce as more investors seek safe-haven strategies through commodities.
Blue Line Futures Head of Research Daniel White joins Brad Smith and Madison Mills on The Morning Brief for a conversation on the commodity trade, keying in on gold, crude oil (CL=F, BZ=F) forecasts amid geopolitical conflicts, and even soybean futures (ZL=F).
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Morning Brief here.
Gold hitting another all-time high as investors flock to safe havens with reignited tensions in the Middle East and weak economic data. Oil prices taking higher after hitting six-month lows earlier this month. Joining us now for a broader look at the commodities space and commodities investors should be considering. We've got Daniel White, Blue Line Futures Head of Research. Daniel, great to speak with you. You sent us three commodities to buy: soybeans, gold, and crude. I want to start on gold because we hit another record high holding above 3,000 over the past 24 hours here. Do investors still have time to get in on gold?
Yeah, I mean, we're sticking with our longs. We're kind of riding the momentum here. We see de-dollarization continuing. Uh, the one thing we're eyeing on our gold longs is, you know, resurgence of dollar strength. If you look at a dollar index chart, that's somewhat consolidating. So, that's our kind of what we have our eyes on now. But we're riding the riding the momentum with a stop below 2974 right now.
Okay. And so how high do you see it going?
Uh, I mean, I generally don't like to forecast out, you know, future prices because you never know what can happen. Um, 3500, I think we'd definitely look to take profits, but I'm not going to give you a concrete price forecast right here.
Okay, that's fair enough. That's a price target. We'll accept that, and that is, uh, perhaps a trade initiating marker, at least, that you're looking out towards in the future.
Yeah, absolutely.
Well, let's pick up on gold then. Or I'm sorry, let's pick up on oil because this is another commodity you recommend that folks buy. Why should folks be getting in on crude, given all the volatility that we're seeing, obviously, in terms of tariffs, but also geopolitical tensions?
Yeah, well, I sent you those notes yesterday. The picture has somewhat changed this morning. Um, Israel launched strikes on Gaza, uh, Lebanon, and Syria last night, early this morning. So, there's been a reintroduction of geopolitical risk premium into pricing. So, to us, that really makes the upside more attractive. Um, generally, we've liked crude, you know, global inventories have been running close to 10-year lows on a seasonal basis. Uh, the bearish sentiment comes from the forward-looking balance sheet. So, right now, markets are fairly tight, so with the introduction of geopolitical risk premium, we really like that contract here.
I mean, especially considering the the fall apart in some of the ceasefire that we've seen, how do how do you see that continuing to overflow into the oil market?
Um, you know, generally, the models I've been looking at, there's a significant lack of geopolitical risk premium priced in. So, I think that this could have some legs. The one thing to watch out for is a possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Uh, you know, that doesn't mean Russian barrels are going to flow back to the market right away, but I think that headline risk is something you definitely have to keep an eye out for.
That headline risk could come as soon as this morning. We know that President Trump was expected to be speaking with Putin this morning at 9:00 a.m. from the White House. We haven't gotten reports from that conversation yet, but we are expecting to hear lifting of sanctions, potential truce is on the table. How do you avoid pricing that into your call?
Uh, generally, we're sticking with calls and call spreads in the May contract. We like the 7175. I was pricing that up around 67 cents this morning. Uh, you kind of get your upside, but you can avoid, you know, any type of catastrophic downside risk.
Great. Let's end on soybeans. That's your third and final commodity to buy. What's the bull case?
Soybeans. So, we're going back to Nove, that's new crop soybeans. Uh, planted acreage this season is looking light around 84 million acres where the Feb estimates. We think that could be lower around 83. Uh, we like the $11, $12 call spread. You get the growing season, you're good for at least one weather scare, and there's a Trump-G summit being talked about for June. We're not necessarily betting on this heavily, but if there is talk of a possible trade deal with China, we would likely see a reinstatement of the phase one, which would increase soybean purchases, hopefully drastically.
Dan, thanks so much for taking the time here this morning.
Thanks, guys. I appreciate it.