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we're getting the latest commentary from the Fed. It seems like the Fed's very confident that we can orchestrate a soft landing. It seems like you're thinking along similar lines. So I'm curious then what you're gleaning or what you're taking away from the recent jobs data and then ultimately, maybe why you're confident we're not going to see a further deterioration down the line.

So it's clear that both Chairman Powell and broader Fed officials have high conviction that the soft landing is here. He described it in the post-meeting press conference that the economy's in good shape. The labor market by historic standards still looks pretty good. And although he was reluctant to declare mission accomplished on inflation, that he's gained confidence that it's headed in the right trajectory. All these speakers this week will double down on exactly that. And the markets also are alongside. They also believe it. You can see it reflected in asset prices, valuations, credit spreads, and measures of volatility. So I think for example, you asked about the labor market. This morning, jobless claims actually ticked down. So we may not be adding as many jobs as we once were, but businesses continue to be reluctant to lay off qualified skilled workers. So the soft landing remains intact. The Fed believes it, the market believes it, and the data supports it.

And so what does that hold for November here? Did should the markets want to see another 50 basis point rate cut? Wouldn't that signal something perhaps more dire in the water?

I was a bit surprised at how aggressive the Fed was last week, and I would be further surprised if they do another half a percent rate cut in November. But I think what it suggests is that they believe that policy where it's at is perhaps too restrictive, that it's far above their preferred measure of inflation, which sits at around two and a half percent. So at four and three quarters to 5% on the policy rate, they believe that that's a bit too high, and they're willing to take some risks early on to get closer to where they want to end up, which is probably around 3%, which is what was suggested in the summary of economic projections. But I absolutely agree that the notion that the Fed wants to move quickly does send some mixed signals, and I was a little surprised at how aggressive they were. One other thing is, in November, we'll be past the election, so they'll be able to avoid some of the questions around their political independence if they are able to do this post-election.