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Welcome to Catalyst. I'm Madison Mills. 30 minutes into your US trading day. Let's get you the 3 catalysts we're watching this hour. First up, we're going to bring you your Fed day decision guide with all eyes on the central bank as President Trump's trade war presents new hurdles to fight inflation.Plus we'll talk competition in the healthcare space as Nova Nordis looks to regain share in the GLP one market and Treasury Secretary Scott Bess and back on Capitol Hill we'll bring you the latest headlines as they cross and what they'll have to say on the upcoming US China trade talks.Half an hour into the start of US trading, let's get you a check on the markets brought to you by Tasty Trade. Taking a look here at the major averages. I've got green on your screen for you today. Interesting to see what's moving under the hood. You've got your S&P 500 up about 0.1%, but tech is the second to last gainer when it comes to the market action this morning. Really seeing gains across some individual names, lifting that. You got consumer discretionary and communication services and healthcare, the three biggest gainers on your S&P this morning tech heavy Nasdaq up 310.Of a percent. But let's flip the board over to the bond market here. You've got yields coming in just a touch. The 10 you still holding at that 4.30 level. It's down about a basis point and continuing to see them moving across the yield curve with the 30 year yield down about 4 basis points as well. Finally here, let's take a look at Bitcoin, seeing a little bit of that risk on sentiment catching hold here with this digital currency up about a little over actually 3.5% and above the 97,000 level this morning.The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates today, with inflation still above target. Labor markets showing no major signs of distress, and the full effect of tariff policies still unknown. Despite the data, President Donald Trump has called for the FOMC to ease rates, writing on social media in April that the central bank has been.Too late and wrong. Joining me now on this and more, Bill Dudley, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Bill, always a pleasure to speak with you. Talk to me about your expectation heading into today. What are you expecting to hear from the Federal Reserve? How many times do you think that we might hear the word transitory this afternoon?

I don't think that we'll hear the word transitory that much because I think that the Fed's not sure yet whether the higher prices from tourists are going to get into inflation expectations and then on to wages. I think Papa is basically going to stress two things that we're on hold for the time being because there's a lot of uncertainty and the uncertainty about trade is going in tariffs is going to affect both growth negatively and inflation negatively, pushing inflation up and growth down.So it basically pushes the Fed further away from its dual mandate objectives, but in a very uncertain way. I mean, we also don't know exactly where we're going to land on tariffs, how much are the tariffs going to actually be unwound over the coming months. So in a, in a, in a, it's basically gonna be an abundance of caution, the Fed's going to be sitting on it, on its hands for some time, especially given the fact that the hard news on the economy is still pretty solid.Uh, the 0.3% decline in real GDP in the first quarter was completely misleading. It was only because they, they, they counted the imports better than they counted inventories. And so they showed a big drag from the inventory sector pushing the economy into negative territory. Private domestic final sales actually rose 3% in the first quarter, which suggests that the economy still, you know, has a considerable forward momentum. That said, we haven't seen the effect of the tariffs yet, and that's really what's going to be important over the next few months.

And and Bill, I'm curious to what you're anticipating hearing from the Fed chair specifically regarding tariffs after news overnight here that the United States and China are expected to have trade talks in the coming days. What do you think the messaging from Powell on those talks might look like?

I think Powell is basically going to say let's wait and see, you know, I think that the Trump administration has an incentive to talk about negotiations to try to be reassuring to the financial markets, but whether those negotiations are going to be fruitful and all for what time frame remains to be determined. So I thinkAnd the Fed takes the world as it is, not the world how it wants it to be. Uh, and right now, uh, we have a threat of tariffs that are going to drive down growth and drive up inflation, and the Fed's got to basically sit on their hands until they figure out how this is going to be resolved.

And it's interesting you say the Fed takes the world as it is. Based on the summary of economic projections, it did seem like the Fed could be thinking that tariffs are a one-off, no need to hike in response, but it also seems like they're not necessarily in a rush to cut either. Where do they net out then? What is the key concern for the Fed about this economy?

Well, they're, they're hopeful that the tariff price induced increases will be viewed as a one-time transitory effect, but they can't be certain because this will be the 5th year in a row that the inflation rate will come in above the Fed's 2% objective. And so, you know, the Fed's credibility is a bit at risk. If the Fed makes a big bet that the price increases are are transitory, and that turns out to be wrong because it gets embedded in inflation expectations and that gets passed along to wages.Then the feds got in a very, very bad place because once inflation expectations become an anchored, as we saw in the 1970s, it's very, very hard to get that inflation genie back in the bottle again.

Yeah, and talk to me about kind of getting that genie back in the bottle when it comes to trade and the impact that that is having on both the global economy but also the United States economy. If we do start to see these trade deals coming in, does that necessitate and lead to a stop in the economic slowdown that we've already seen some evidence of, at least in the soft economic data?

Well, I mean, obviously, it helps mitigate the, the damage to the economy, but some of the damage is already taking place because if, if the ships from China aren't sailing today, that means that there, there's gonna be have to be a lot of ships sailing in the future and there aren't enough ships to go around. So,You know, I think we've already set the stage for, uh, you know, supply chain frictions that will be plaguing the US economy over the coming months, even if we, if we negotiate trade deals with these with these foreign countries.

So what do you think the Fed is more focused on right now, and we've heard some signs of this, but today, do you think they're more focused on a concern about a growth slowdown or increased inflation?

I think that they're concerned about both. Uh, I think they don't have a strong view of which one is necessarily going to dominate. Uh, Obviously, to the extent that the unemployment rate starts rising a lot, that would then shift their concerns to the growth side of the equation. One thing that people that haven't really focused on enough is that we don't really need a lot of economic growth to keep the unemployment rate where it is because the labor force is growing much more slowly this year than last year because of deportations and the clampdown on immigration.So last year we had very strong labor force growth that meant that you could actually have sturdy payroll employment growth without putting more pressure on the labor market. This year we're sort of in a very opposite situation where we actually need uh small increases in payroll employment if we're going to keep the unemployment rate, you know, stable. So it's a very different situation from a labor supply perspective, and that's also going to make the Fed a little bit more cautious about responding to weakness in the economy. Uh, the unemployment rate, I think, is the key variable to focus on.

So, so then what is your anticipation of what rate cuts might look like this year and when they might come, if at all this year?

Well, I think it's gonna be a bit later. It's gonna be a bit take more time for the economic news to be clear about which side is becoming the greater risk. So I'm not, not, I'm not expecting the Fed to cut uh this week or, or in June, um, you know, sometime maybe later in the second half of the year.And it would really be about what's happening to inflation expectations versus what's happening to the unemployment rate. I think there's really two scenarios. One scenario is the economy manages to stay afloat. The Fed just sits on its hands. The other scenario is the labor market breaks, the unemployment rate climbs above 4.5%. In that case, the Federal Reserve cuts rates and cuts rates pretty aggressively. And I just don't think we know yet which, which, which scenario is likely to unfold.

All right, Bill Dudley, we got to leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us this morning. Appreciate it.

Thank you.

Taking a look at the major averages, stocks are higher today on news that top US and China officials will finally meet for trade talks coming this weekend. But could a hawkish tone from Fed Chair Jay Powell at this afternoon's presser derail some of the market momentum to the upside? Joining us now on that, Tim Murray, a strategist at T. Rowe Price Capital Markets. Tim.Great to have you on this morning. Talk to me about the price action that we're seeing off the back of news of these trade talks, seeing a bit of a lift in stocks here. To what extent do you think that that rally can continue based off of headlines about talks about talks versus actual news of trade deals?

Yeah, I think, I mean, obviously the, um, any news of progress from China, any news of de-escalation is gonna be good for the market, uh, for the time being, I think that's the key here is for the time being, we aren't gonna have a lot of economic data. All of the earnings data that we're gonna get is gonna be from first quarter and, uh, you know, Liberation Day was April 2nd, first quarter ended March 31st, so.I would say right now that's kind of all we have to go on is what's going, what's coming with these trade talks. So I think as long as you get some positive momentum there, it's not gonna be derailed by something else, uh, as far as the data is concerned now.You know, once we get to July August, I would be much more concerned about the data starting to derail any kind of good vibes on trade,

right? So, so super short term in the next couple of weeks here when it comes to headlines coming out of these trade talks, what would make you more bullish?

And so I, I would say, um,One of the, one of the most important things to watch is the 10%. So we came into this year with tariff, the, the aggregate tariff rate on a weighted average basis that we were charging the rest of the world, it was 2.5%, something in that neighborhood. Um, if, and then we got the, the, the tariffs put on the reciprocal tariffs and a 10% blanket tariff, right? So,10, even if we get rid of all of the 10 all of the reciprocal tariffs, you still got 10% left, that's a 400% increase in tariffs, um.So what I would be watching is, is that 10% a floor or not, right? So if we start to see deals where we actually get that temper would get down from that 10%, that would be a really good um sign, but if the 10% kind of looks like a floor.You're that's going to be tough unless you get really big exemptions. Yeah,

and to that exact point, how do you trade in this environment, Tim? I noticed in your, in your notes that you sent over, you talked about the 6 to 18 month outlook being extremely opaque. How do you allocate capital when you can't see a year and a half from now?

Yeah, so what I would say is you need to make sure you have a plan. One, we what we do know is there's going to be a lot of uncertainty and a lot of volatility going forward, so.I would say one, you wanna have cash, um, you wanna probably dial down how much um risk you have, and if you're, you know, if you're in a situation where you can't stand a lot of volatility, I would, I would look to de-risk your portfolio.But, but if you, if you're in a situation where you think, hey, I, I want to take advantage of any weakness, just be prepared for all that volatility, have a plan going in. You have to look at it and say, hey, this is the point where I think the bad news is priced in, and this is where I.Start buying because the day that the prices look the best is going to be the day when the, the news is the worst. Just keep that in mind.

Tim, what is the best move when it comes to that de-risking? We've seen the flight to international, the flight to gold. What move is the best one in your view?

So I think it's still cash. Uh, I, I do think international bonds is, is a good alternative to US Treasuries, but just given where the Fed is with, you know, they have dualling mandates right now, not just dual mandates, that's going to make them conflicted about, you know, so any economic weakness is not necessarily going to be met with bed cuts. So I would say cash is probably your best place to be at this point.

All right, Tim Murray, thank you so much for joining us this morning. Appreciate it.

Thanks, Madison.

Coming up here we're gonna take a look at some trending tickers company news that you need to know one company delaying its investor day as another announces job cuts. Those stories and more next on Catalyst.It's now time for some of today's trending tickers. This morning we're watching Marvel, CrowdStrike, and Tesla. First up, Marvel postponing its Investor Day, citing an uncertain economy. The Investor Day was scheduled for June 10th will now take place on an unspecified date in 2026. Kenor Fitzgerald also downgrading the stock to neutral from overweight, and this comes as cyclically speaking, the semiconductor names have been in a little bit of a tough moment here, specifically when it comes to Marvel.One analyst saying while at these levels, the stock is not expensive, we worry that the shares could be range bound until investor confidence in Marvel's custom chip pipeline improves. So just a note to say that it's not just about seeing, oh well, the stock is at a discount now. Some of those fundamentals are also of concern for analyst

Brad. Yeah, two things jump out to me here the narrower revenue guidance that was provided by Marvell as part of the announcements here. But then additionally, you're taking a look at how the street.I viewing this name and and what is playing into this larger call that we saw come through from Cantor Fitzgerald and that is where we could see some of the application specific integrated circuits and some of that demand shift towards and the transition to some of the broadcom processors that are also a part of that that all impacts Marvel and that all combined with them moving out some of what the details were that the investor community was waiting to hear from.That's going to be delayed too here, so it really is factored into the share price action that we're seeing correlated here today, moving the stock lower by 9% right now. Next up, let's talk a little crowd strike cutting 500 jobs or about 5% of its workforce to reduce costs. The cybersecurity company also reaffirming guidance for fiscal year 2026. It is set to release first quarter results next month. You're seeing shares of CRWD move lower by about 3%.Uh, a little more than 3% as of right now, and within the document, uh, the filing that they had put forward here, they had mentioned that there would also be this correlated plan, the strategic plan, the plan as they're calling it, uh, estimates that they're gonna incur approximately $36 million to $53 million in charges and connections with this plan, $7 million expected to be recognized in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, uh, and then substantially the remainder incurred during the second quarter of fiscal 2026.In association with some of the restructuring and the cuts that are coming to theirworkforce as well.

Yeah, I think it's so important that you point that out, Brad, because when you get layoff news for a company, sometimes that can be seen as good news for the stock because it means they're cutting back on costs. But as you can see in the price action with the stock down this morning, perhaps this is a sign that the amount of losses the company expects to incur off the back of those layoffs might be just a little too high. Looks like it's going to be between 36 and $56 million in charges.that severance.

Yes, we're not going to hear from the company, at least on the earnings front until June 3rd, Tuesday, June 3rd is when they report after the market closed. And so that is going to be for the company's fiscal first quarter for 2026, which ended April 30th here. So we get a little bit more color about what the guidance and what's the outlook actually looking like for CrowdStrike at this juncture. Of course this will be a year removed from some of the more dire straits.Especially on a kind of lapse in their own services that took place, impacted companies like Delta, and certainly put CrowdStrike front and center with how they would recover from that in the minds of investors as well here. But again, shares down by about 3.5% right now off of this latest news from them.

Absolutely here and we're also going to take a look over at Tesla. The China-made electric vehicle sales for Tesla declining for 7th month, falling 6% year over year in the month of April. Chinese rival BY.I meantime seeing sales up more than 19% year over year during the same period. What does that tell you? It tells you that it could be a Tesla specific problem in China. We've seen this with a lot of other companies as well, not just Tesla, where especially in China, consumers are switching to so-called homegrown brands, and you can see that playing out with regards to EVs. But more broadly, there has been a slowdown in Tesla sales, not just in China, but of course in Europe with the uh with Elon Musk.The CEO kind of transitioning to more alt-right political views and that weighing on sales according to some analysts that I have spoken with and then also here in the United States we've seen a bit of a slowdown in sales as well off the back of Elon Musk working with the Trump administration, which he says he's going to dial back over the course of the quarters to come.

Ithink that's course this too. I mean, you laid it out right. It's how much Elon Musk is actually rattling some of the and actually furthering we should say some of the shift to homegrown or.Nationalistic consumer tendencies, especially in the Asia Pacific region, especially within China, a region where Tesla in years past, just a few years back, finally got the Gigafactory, I believe it was 2019. Gigafactory Shanghai brought that online, was able to then service directly into the country, largely avoid any potential tariffs that they may have faced in order to kind of produce here and then ship there. So mitigated that also was using that originally to try and make sure that they could.Sell directly into Emea, but what did they do then? They brought online Gigafactory Berlin. So what we're watching directly here is a pushback from the consumer on Elon Musk's tendencies to, I mean, look, he essentially annexed himself the closest of any CEO or billionaire to President Trump. And so there are the ramifications on the other side that Tesla and Tesla shareholders have also been incurring and now we're seeing that play out in some of the sales as well here in that region. Absolutely.You can scan the QR code below to track the best and worst performing stocks with Yahoo Finance's trending ticker page.

All right, Brad, thank you so much for joining us. We really do appreciate it. Coming up, we've got our conversation with the CEO Novo Nordisk as the company trims its outlook for the rest of the year. Shares move to the upside. We'll explain why next.Shares of drug maker Novo Nordisk moving higher after beating Wall Street's profit estimates for the latest quarter here with the three biggest takeaways from Novo's earnings. We've got Yahoo Finance reporter Angeli Kemlani. Anjali, it's great to have you. It's interesting to see the stock price moving up even though they did trim their outlook, but it seems that was already kind of priced in heading into the print.

Yeah, the company has been one of those that has been under pressure. We know, of course, because of competition heating up with competitor Eli Lilly.And Novo came out saying that they're looking forward to kind of recovering a little bit in the 2nd quarter. So my biggest takeaways from the earnings and also from speaking with CEO Lars Jurgensen was first of all looking at that global dominance. So we have the perception of those prescriptions of Lily's Zbound taking over, but he reminded us that the company does have 72% of global market share, so that's something.Keep an eye on. In addition, taking a look at the uh at the sales for the second half of the year, those compounding uh products that has been part of what has pressured the company's sales and they're looking towards the relief with the enforcement from the FDA uh towards the end of the month so to take those compounded products off the market and that would lead to hopefully.A regaining of those sales, but they did still cut it down by about 3% on both ends so it was 16 to 24% previously and now the outlook has softened a little bit. And then finally taking a look at what we have going on with the company's CVS deal, that was a big thing for them getting that exclusive deal with the formulary knocked Lilly's stock down last.Week, but I heard from the CEO that that was actually not their idea. It was CVS pursuing that. They didn't have to do any price concessions, and that's something that they just kind of got as a gift.

Well, I am fascinated by that and eager to hear more about it in your interview with him. Angelli, thank you so much, really appreciate it. Sticking with Novo, CEO of Novo Nordiss sat down with Yahoo Finance to break down the company's latest earnings and competition in the GOP one market.

We're excited about our our release this morning and uh and the confidence we have as we look ahead and not least because of the opportunity of having this uh we go in the pill, the first uh all GOP one treatment in in obesity.I think it's important to underline that this is a very, very well established molecule, so we have more than 30,000 patient years of semoglutide usage in diabetes and obesity. So from a regulatory point of view, I think the profile is quite straightforward.16.6% weight loss, the safety profile I mentioned and not even being safe also having added benefits of cardiovascular protective profile and remind everybody that we already have the product on the market in type 2 diabetes. So from a risk and FDA point of view, I think this is perhaps one of the easier reviews for them, so to say.

I, I know that Wagove is really top of mind for everyone today. Investors are really moving on that hope for recovery we've seen you lose a little bit of ground in the US against competitor Lilly's Z bound. Talk to me about that and you know, I know you've done a number of things like get access through telehealth platforms.And then CVS that deal for the formulary exclusively for the formulary. I know that you've mentioned that you don't agree with that exclusivity clause. Talk to me about that and why enter that deal and also what that means for Regovi's recovery and prescription numbers.

Yeah, thanks. uh, it's clear that uh our uh development in in scripts have been subdued because of compounding, uh, so we estimate that in totality that is approximately as big as our own business, uh, which is quite, uh, you know.Surprising in many ways, and now we are off the drug shortage list as declared by the FDA, so now it's turning illegal to do compounding in mass volumes. So we will be aggressively pursuing that to make sure that's closed down and that of course that means that patients will have access to the real deal, so to say we are coming from no no risk.And there it's important to underline that we have made a cash offering uh to uh increasingly be present where the patients are buying the medicine also on on tele health so some partnerships there to uh to stretch and and be present where the patients are and then you mentioned the CVS deal uh where I think it's important to underline that we have not made a bid for an exclusive position.Uh, some have been worrying that the price war was coming up. Uh, we are not going for that. We believe in choice for physicians and patients. Uh, so this is a decision.Uh, made from CVS, I think it's a testimony about the strength of we go, the fact it has cardiovascular protective profile and hopefully later this year upon FDA approval, also a mass indication a significant health burden and the fact you can get all of this in one product, uh, paying for it once and getting, uh, know the full value, um, is, I think, a really, really good deal, and that's why I think the CVS made the choice they made. I don't say we have a strong partnership with CVS, a very good collaboration.It is a great company and that's also expressed in that the 9000 outlets CVS pharmacies also carry our cash program, the $499 a month supply of We Gobi, so a close partnership and working together to reach more patients goingforward.

Yeah, that $499 is interesting. I bet you hope more people are citing that than the list price these days. I want to also talk about tariffs. Previously when ITo you said that you're not worried about them, and we've heard from President Trump saying that within the next couple of weeks he's going to unveil what will be the tariffs that hit the pharmaceutical sector. Any thoughts about that as well as the revival of potentially a most favored nation clause, uh, just for the Medicaid population is where it's looking at right now. I know it's a small population, but the idea that it could be weighed against, you know, international pricing or any kind of tariffs that might hit how you're thinking about bracing for all these changes.

Yeah, it's I think there's a significant uncertainty right now and also some volatility in the market as these comments are made. If you look at the facts, uh, over the past years and also as, as many companies move manufacturing out of the US and sometimes to low tax jurisdiction.We as a company actually moved manufacturing to the US over the past 10 years we have invested more than $24 billion in in our operations in the US. We have more than 10,000 people now, and if you look at our footprint in the US, we produce.More than we need for the US, so we actually export more from the US than we import into the US, so we are net exporter of manufactured products. So in many ways I think we're doing what the administration wants to create jobs in the US and produce in the US and supply to the rest of the world. And when we talk about this all, you know, solution we go in the pill, I can actually I'm very proud to say that.The API, the active pharmaceutical ingredients, is made in the US. The tablet is made in the US. The packaging is made in the US, so it's a 100% US manufactured product. There's no sourcing of chemicals from China and elsewhere. It's biological.manufacturing taking place in North Carolina and uh supplied to to to Americans so we're proud about that and I think in many ways that's exactly what the administration is after uh so so that's great on the most favored nation and uh and particular Medicaid as you mentioned.And Medicaid is together with the veterans where we have the lowest price points. So when, when people talk about the list price and compare that with European prices, this is much different in Medicaid. That's where we have some of the deepest rebates. So I worry less about the delta to to Europe on that. I think that's where perhaps this this category of products is priced different than more specialty products and the like. So I think we I think we can, we can manage that.

And again, our thanks to Angelique Kamlani for bringing us that interview with the CEO of Novo Nordisk. We're gonna have all your markets action ahead here at Yahoo Finance. Still looking at green on your screen for the markets. Stay tuned. You're watching Catalysts.Treasury Secretary Scott Besson testifying before the House Financial Services Committee just days before the Secretary will sit down with Chinese counterparts in Switzerland in the first meeting between the US and China since President Trump's April 2 tariff announcements. Joining us now with more, John Hills and wrath. He is Stones.Your adviser John, great to speak with you. Obviously heading towards this high stakes meeting between Beijing and Washington. The optimism taking stocks a touch higher this morning. Is this going to be 3 steps forward, 2 steps back, or are we actually going to get headlines that could continue to be a catalyst for this market?

Well, I mean, I think I might call it 2 steps forward, 2 steps back. So I mean, I think there, there are 3 things happening in parallel right now. There is what the administration is doing with its negotiations. There are, there are the market reactions to those headlines, and then there's the economic aftershocks of the steps that have already been taken, and that's all happening at once, so.You know, the administration is moving forward with negotiations with the Chinese. They're probably going to extend and delay the reciprocal tariffs with other countries, uh, for a longer period of time, and the market is responding positively to that.But as we speak, the economic effects of what's already been done, let's not forget there's a 10% across the board tariff, and there's a 145% on China already tariff on China already in place and autos and steel. So there's still some real effects that have to hit the economy, and I think we're going to see the market respond to some of that thissummer.

And talk to me toAbout the timeline here because I've been talking to my sources in Washington who point me to the fact that these trade talks between the US and China can typically take years, but the stock market would obviously love for it to be a little bit faster than that. What are you hearing in terms of how much the market can really withstand any delays to these kinds of talks leading to any kind of reduction in that tariff rate?

Well, you know, it's a complicated issue because on the one hand it really is up to the President of the United States. If he walks back the tariffs that he's put in place, these 145% tariffs, those effects can be very, you know, can happen very fast. Reaching kind of long and durable agreements that both countries stand by.You're right, that can take years. Let's not forget in 2018, 2019, the US and China came to this two phase deal. We never even got to implementing the first phase, you know, you look back at the original NAFTA, that took about a decade to negotiate.And getting China into the WTO took almost two decades. So you know there's a fast button and a slow button. The fast button is the president can do whatever he wants and turn on and turn off these tariffs as long as Congress doesn't get involved and the courts don't get involved. But then there's the slower.Button, which is, you know, when are we going to reach some point of stability in our relationship with not only China but other trade partners, and I do think that takes a very long time, which is why you're going to see volatility in the markets. You're going to see these impulses of excitement, butYou know, reordering the global trade system isn't going to happen overnight. It's going to be a very rocky road, Iam afraid.

And Treasury Secretary Scott Besin saying here on Capitol Hill that negotiations with China will begin on Saturday. He also said in his interview with Fox that he expects there to be not a full decoupling, but ratherFocus on fairness when it comes to trade policy. John, what does that tell you about what these trade negotiations could look like in their finality? Does that signal to you that maybe there's going to be a sector specific approach versus that broad, you know, triple digit tariff that could signal more of that decoupling that Besant was rebuffing in his interview?

You know, I, I, I am constantly going back to what happened in 2018 and 2019 during the president's first term for a map of how things play out, and what we saw in 2018 and 2019 was pretty intense competition among the president's own advisers, this competition of rivals where you had people like Peter Navarro.who wanted to take a very aggressive stance on tariffs, and then you had the Treasury Secretary at the time, Steven Mnuchin, who was more inclined to negotiate, and you got different signals on different days and different advisers kind of got to the president on different days and we really were in this state of constant limbo and tension trying to figure out who among the rivals would win out to get the president's.Full support and backing, and we saw that again in April. The reciprocal tariffs look very clearly like the work of Peter Navarro, who's a very strong anti anti trade wing of the president's advisers, and then you have Scott Benson who wants to negotiate. So I think that's what we're going to get over the next few months. It's going to be a competition not only among the trade partners to get a good deal, but among the president's own advisers.To win their day in these internal arguments about how soft or hard to be on Americans trade rivals.

And John, I also want to move on to a survey that you conducted. I should remind the audience here that you're a visiting scholar at Duke's Department of Economics and an expert in the economy yourself, but you did a survey of former central bankers who talked to you about what they think Fed Chair Jay Powell should do with regards to interest rates. What did you learn?

Yeah.Well, you know, the markets have been expecting the Fed to cut interest rates pretty aggressively this year by a full percentage point. As recently as a week or so ago, the markets were projecting a Fed rate cut by June. The president obviously is pushing the Fed to cut interest rates. What former Fed officials.Tell me in the survey is that the Fed should hold the line. It should stay the course. It shouldn't move rates until it has a better idea of the effects of uncertainty and tariffs on the economy, which can cut different ways. On the one hand, people, you know, a lot of economists say the odds of recession are rising on the other.Hand tariffs are a shock to goods prices and could create inflationary impulses. So the former Fed officials that I'm surveying are saying hold the line, don't move, and I think that's what we're going to get out of Jay Powell today. No move in rates and no signal of an inclination to cut rates by June.

All right, John, we've got to leave it there. Thank you so much for making the time to join us this morning. Appreciate it.

Thank you. Thanks so much.

Another stock we are watching this morning, PDD Pinduoduo, that is the parent company of Timmu in focus after TMu and its competitor Sheehan saw double digit sales declines in the week after they raised retail prices to cover the cost of increased US tariffs, an initial sign that Donald Trump's trade measures have taken a toll on the shopping platform's popularity, this according to data from Bloomberg. So let's dive.some of that data, she and US sales dropping 23% the week after it raised prices. Tu seen a 17% decline in that same stretch. This is according to data coming from Bloomberg, and this of course comes after we saw some prices for goods on these platforms, rising by as much as 300% in some cases. Now of course it's important to remember that a lot of those products were already.Incredibly inexpensive and affordable, so you could see a $2 item becoming $6 but obviously, as you can see both in the ADRs here and the price action on the company like Pinduoduo and also in the sales numbers that is already starting to weigh on consumers. Of course this comes after the de minimis exception exemption was rolled back that allowed for a loophole in shipments of orders.$800 they were not experiencing tariffs and of course they are now so that cost getting passed on to consumers through these price hikes here and you're seeing that weighing on these companies sales here, these trade measures also as a reminder are going to be up for discussion as we head into these talks between the US and China, which Treasury Secretary Scott Besant says are coming up here this Saturday.Well, coming up here on our program, our investors chasing risk or safety? We're taking a look at what the ETF flows tell us about sentiment. That's next.According to Tidal Research, ETF issuers have brought in a record $17 billion in expense ratio revenue in the past year, in large part due to the rise of actively managed ETFs. At the same time, according to FactSet data, US bond ETFs added $1.5 billion in a single day this week. So what will the majority of investors choose managed risks or safety? I want to bring in Michael Vnudo title.Group's chief investment officer for this week's ETF report sponsored by Invesco QQQ. Michael, great to speak with you. I'm so excited to get your take on this because obviously $1.5 billion into bonds, seeing that safety catching a bid from investors, but you also point out in your notes here that investors are also seeking active and complex ETFs. Which one is getting more popular at this moment?

Yeah, so we've seen a lot of this. Um, uh, our platform helps people launch, grow, and operate ETFs. So we're behind Tom Lee at Fun Strat, right? He came out with granny shots. It's raised almost a little over 900 million in 6 months, and it's very active, very concentrated. Um, we even saw Rockefeller, which is a client of ours as well, bring out two ETFs last year that were actively managed, and they did it through a tax-free conversion.Um, so that kind of stuff, people seem to have a risk appetite for.

And and is that risk appetite indicating that maybe investors are a little bit more risk on than we might think right now? Are investors more willing to, you know, buy any rally at this moment, or are they looking to sell that rally and seek safety?

So I do see a lot of buying the dip, right? Uh, we see inflows to funds like I just mentioned, the more high beta funds. We also have a lot of things that have exposure to crypto or AI. We're behind chat with Round Hill or Block with uh Amplify. These are all funds that we service that we're seeing on dip days, people are, are leaking in.

And so how does that compare with the buying that you're seeing in some of those more safe areas of the market when it comes to things like gold, things like bonds?

Yeah, I've seen most of the gold or bond positions being paired with things. So like we have a client that has a Bitcoin and gold fund, BTGD. That's getting more of a bid than inflows into gold in general, even though gold is at an all-time high, um.You know, we've seen, uh, we have a GDXY which is gold miners with income by doing options. That's getting a bit in this space more than just going to short duration and things like that. Um, I, despite what feels like negative sentiment and uncertainty, the flows are just not stopped in ETFs.

All right, Michael, great overview there. I really appreciate your time this morning. Thank you so much for joining us.

Absolutely, thank you,Madison.

Let's get to check in here on the major averages before we head to break. You're still looking at gains across those major averages pushing higher on trade hopes ahead of that key meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, Jamieson Greer, and Chinese officials as well. Taking a look at those major averages though, the gains slowing a bit. You've got your S&P just above the flat line taking a look at what's moving under the hood here. Consumer discretionary and financials are.Two biggest gainers, the two biggest laggards, com services and materials. You've also got tech off about 2.2% within your S&P 500. No surprise then to see your tech-heavy Nasdaq down just about 2.1%. The Dow and the Nasdaq continuing their inverse relationship that we've seen them developing over the past couple of months here. And also interesting to see what we might be seeing in the bond market if we can flip the board.Over because it's been interesting to see yields catching. Treasury's catching just a bit of a bid here. You've got your 10 year yield down about 2 basis points this morning below that key 430 level holding at 429, and you're seeing a bit of that continuation across the longer end of the yield curve as well. Coming up here, you've got wealth that's dedicated to all of your personal finance needs. Our very own Brad Smith, he'll have you for the next hour. Stick around.