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There's the closing bell on Wall Street, and now it's market domination overtime sponsored by TeamC Trade. We're going to be joined by Jared Blicker to get you up to speed on the action from today's session. I'll start with the major averages here and as we talked about sort of a lot of zigzagging in the wake of both some trade comments from President Trump, of course, the Fed decision, and then press conference, then a report in the last 20 minutes or so, um, affecting chip stocks, especially Nvidia. So all of that equals.an up day for now all three major averages after some of them were negative for much of the day. The Dow higher by 285 points or so. It's about 0.1%. The S&P 500 up by 4/10, but it definitely was negative for some of the afternoon here in the Nasdaq, which was most consistently negative throughout the day, finishing in the green up by about 0.25%. Jared's got a bigger breakdown here. He's at the New York Stock Exchange today for a closer look at the action. Hey, Jared.

Julie, thank you. And I'm going to also include the Russell 2000 here, kind of the laggard of the day, up about 13%, and I'll just check in on the bond market in a second, but let's take a look at the VIX. VIX down today, still hovering above 202362, but I consider this kind of a win. The S&P 500 has still yet to clear its 200 day moving average, so that's looming just above the current levels. But let's go to bonds real quickly. We see those take a little bit of a hit.The yield anyway down 3 basis points to 4.28%, probably nothing to write home about, as has been happening lately. US dollar moving in the opposite direction here and let's see, it looks like I might not have the Wi Fi there we go, dollar up about 0.5%. Let's get to some heat maps here and check out the sector action for the day. Only 3 sectors in the red of the 11, starting with materials that was the biggest laggard, down 0.5%. Then you got communication services where we have alphabetta meta.And then real estate, but tech was a leader today along with consumer discretionary. Throw healthcare in there too. Healthcare had a little bit of a slip yesterday due to some biotech negative developments, I think on the earnings front. Let's check out the Nasdaq 100. There we see Alphabet taking that hit down about 7%. AI is quite the competitive deal for Apple nowadays, and Apple itself down 1%. Apple kind of lagging the rest of the mag 7 recently, but.2%. Broadcom up over 2, and Tesla up about 3. And we'll check in on the Dow here, pretty green board aside from Apple. We got United Health down, Verizon, Boeing, Caterpillar, She and Williams down, but Honeywell trading about 2% to the upside. I want to dig into the tech trade real quickly here and I'll leave you guys on that. Here's the semiconductors. Beside Nvidia up 3% today and already hit Broadcom. Taiwan semi up 1%, ASML up 3%, Qualcomm up 3%.And let's get into unprofitable tech, not Tesla, but a lot of these other issues. DraftKings, for instance, up 3%, Robin Hood up 2%. That is the Ark Innovation Fund Holdings, more of a disruption trade.And then we'll finish off here with the tech trade on software. A little bit of a down draft for CrowdStrike. That's down 4% to the right of your screen on the heat map, and Microsoft just treading about break even. Salesforce up almost 2%. And other than that, pretty risk risk friendly day given all the drama we've had with tariffs and everything. I think a sigh of relief after Powell today.

Thank you, Jared.What is next after the Fed announcement, market repricing, messaging, portfolio strategy, and playbooks. There's a lot to consider. We're joined now by Kelsey Barrow, JP Morgan Asset Management. Welcome, Kelsey to the show. Let's start on the Fed. What do you make of what you heard today?

Well, maybe we should look at the bond market reaction as an indicator of what we heard and I think the fact that you are seeing very muted reactions, so you know, maybe the front end up a couple basis points, the long end down a couple basis points, but really broadly unchanged, and I could say the same about stocks, you know, maybe before the the chips announcement at the end of the day, um, I think that's exactly what Chair Powell was hoping for, which is not to shake things up.Um, there is still a ton of uncertainty out there, and he wanted to present a message which is, yeah, we're here, we're ready, we're watching things, we're well positioned, but we don't need to do anything right now. And the fact that the market didn't move very much is I think an indication that he did a pretty good job communicating the uncertain path and comforting markets that yeah we're here, we're watching.

I guess the risk is the next time we get an economic data point that is not that is negative.You know, there is a risk potentially that the Fed then looks behind the curve. Maybe I don'tknow.

I think that's fair and in a way he indicated that that is a growing risk because they don't have the luxury of being preemptive. They don't have the luxury of being preemptive because inflation is still above their target, but I think he was very clear in indicating while the data itself hasn't rolled over outside of surveys, the risk.The downside have increased materially and this is still in a fed with a dual mandate of inflation and unemployment and ultimately I think that when if they see the downside risk to growth, those will out outweigh the upside risk to inflation um while I don't think he's going to be as definitive in terms of his competence around that that's the way that we ultimately think this is going to play out.Because tariffs are taxed on the consumer, they destroy demand, and the bond market is telling you that beyond the next 12 to 24 months, inflation expectations have been flat, very stable, or falling, which is an indication that while he doesn't want to use the word transitory, this still may be more of a one-time price level reset that ultimately the Fed can look through.

Those smart economists you work with at Ky at JPMorgan, how many cuts are they calling for in 2025?

So I think in our view we still expect rate cuts this year so it's really a question of when, not if, and the when is dependent on how fast we start to see the downside risks, the heightened uncertainty translate into the economic data, particularly the labor market data. Now everything that we're hearing is indicating that.Minimum job growth should be slowing, uh, if not a little more materially because companies, uh, you know, maybe they're holding on to labor, but many of them are freezing hiring, so we should start to see that but until the Fed sees that they can't act and so you are at risk for that next cut not to be in June, maybe not even until July.Because it's all a question of how soon do we see these disruptions show up in the hard data. Now once the Fed starts cutting, if we are seeing recessionary data, I think the Fed has shown us historically that they are willing to move quickly and so the market is going to have to price in a pretty wide range of outcomes, you know, I think that realistically you could see a scenario where.The Fed is on hold at any given meeting or the Fed could be cutting 50 at any given meeting, you know, if you, if you really start to see the deterioration in the labor market. But right now the story is actually still pretty clear for them, which is they don't have the urgency to do anything. Well,

and ahead of that, if indeed the price hike from tariffs is a temporary or one-time situation.And if the concern is more with growth, won't rates come down anyway ahead of the Fed potentially cutting, so doing some of the work for the Fed,

you could say, yeah, so in terms of our view on, on Treasury yields, I would view them as fairly asymmetric to the downside, um, so we have a range,

in otherwords, you think they're more likely to fall.

Exactly, exactly, and we've been thinking about it in terms of a range of 375 to 450 on the tenure, and you're not at the very top of that range, but you're certainly in the upper half of that range, which means that we do believe that high quality duration and treasuries are going to serve as a pretty good hedge, uh, if we start to see the data roll over.Meaning if we start to see the weak data, we do expect yields to fall, bond prices to rise, and although there's been a lot of uncertainty about the diversification benefits of bonds and if they're really working this year, I think if you take a step back and you look at what we've seen so far this year, you've seen the stock market, uh, S&P 500 maybe down 4 or 5% at this point, year to date, and you have.Bonds up a couple percent. That's exactly what we want to be seeing. And earlier today you saw a little, a little taste of that when the statement first came out and Powell, uh, indicated within the statement, higher risks for higher unemployment and higher inflation. You saw stocks start to trade off a little bit and you saw bonds start to catch a little bit of a bid.

All right, we'll see if that keeps working in the same way. Good to see you, Kelsey. Thanks for coming in.Stick around, we got more market domination still to come.Disney shares jumping today after it reported strong 2nd quarter earnings, but the company still has a ways to go before catching up to the massive run up of streaming giant Netflix. For more, we're bringing in Yahoo Finance senior reporter Ali Knell. Interesting compareand contrast,

compare and contrast, and a lot of catch up to do both when it comes to those year to day earnings gains along with valuation. And let's start there on the valuation side because, uh, if you take a look at some of the PE ratios for this company, um, Disney, it really.Lacks what you see with Netflix. So PE ratio, that's also known as price to earnings ratio, a higher PE suggests investors are willing to pay more for each dollar of a company's earnings. Right now, as I mentioned, Netflix is trading at a trailing PE of just around 55%. That's according to Yahoo Finance data. This is a very high valuation. A big reason why it stems from the growth story more subscribers, more hit shows, more live events, more ads. These are all catalysts that investors are bullish on over the long term. Now let's compare.That to Disney, which is sitting at a trailing PE of about 33, that's significantly lower, and suggests that while investors still see promise in Disney's future, especially with the release of Disney Plus, the debut there, the company's IP, it's park expansion, they're not expecting the kind of explosive growth that they anticipate from Netflix. So in other words, investors are saying that they believe in Netflix's future so much that they're willing to pay nearly double what they pay for Disney. So that's a pretty big bet. It hinges on Netflix continuing to.which is why some on Wall Street say the company's valuation is just way too high, yet we continuously see retail traders pile into this stock. They're looking at a chart from Vander Track Research. The senior VP told me that Netflix is usually much more heavily traded compared to Disney. You can see some large dip buying in mid-2022 that eventually turned into massive momentum chasing later that year. And then even today retail still swings between dip buying and momentum chasing as we've seen the stock.hit record after record. Meanwhile, Disney stock, it's been pretty lackluster over the past five years, and because of that, retail traders have tended to sell the rips since 2024, essentially offloading these positions and generally inflows are smaller here too. So bottom line, Netflix shows continuing to be the outperformer, at least when we look at some of this recent stock action.

Macro uncertainty, Ali, um, that was really the theme of Jalwell's presser today. How is that kind of showing up and impacting these media names?

Well, Netflix in particular has been looked at as a very defensive name. Sources have told me that it's the cleanest story in tech, especially considering all of those macro headwinds, the impact that that has on certain revenue streams like advertising. Typically in a downturn, ad budgets are first to go. And lucky for Netflix, it's not as exposed to advertising compared to some other big tech names like Meta, for example. Disney also faces challenges on the consumer side. So if there are any pullbacks in travel, tourism, spending, that's going.To directly hit its parks business and even in the earnings that we saw earlier today we saw international operating income at the parks dropped 23% due to a challenge consumer in China and Hong Kong, so definitely more at risk, but at the same time Disney also has more levers that it can pull in case any one area of their business has weakness. Netflix is just a pure play streaming company, so it totally depends on the moment, but certainly investors are more bullish on Netflix right now.

Yeah, definitely,thanks, Sally,

appreciate

it.Well, as we've been talking about, Disney lifting its profit outlook after delivering a rebound in its domestic parks business, and as streaming saw its 4th straight quarter of profitability, Daiwa Capital Markets senior, uh, America, America senior research analyst, excuse me, Jonathan Keyes is joining us now to discuss. Jonathan, thanks for being here.We were just talking about that comparison with Netflix. Let's start there on the streaming side of Disney's business. And yes, it sort of feels like different parts of the business it can lean into at different times. With the parks doing so well, what did streaming do for Disney this past quarter?

Great. First, thanks for having me and yeah, it's a mouthful of the title. Uh, the parks uh business did spectacular. It, um, grew top line grew, uh, uh, profitability. It contributed to the overall, uh, top line growth of 7%, uh, and just EPS of, um.Uh, dollar 45 or about 20% year over year growth, uh, operating income overall grew 15% year over year. So,Uh, so the streaming did exceptional in terms of that it reached another milestone in profitability, 5.5% operating uh margin. Uh, there was a talk about Netflix. Netflix is double digit operating margins. Once Disney and Disney see that achievable, can reach double digits, the operating income should really expand and contribute to overall profitability as well as just the uh.The top line growth. The parks business has been another uh driver uh consistent driver since the reopening of umUh, society, and it's just been, despite the macro headwinds that were mentioned by your reporter, uh, they just delivered solid, uh, attendance, solid numbers, solid metrics. Yeah, China was a little soft, but domestic is so much larger and they had less international visitors than they have, uh, because of uh the macro headwinds, but they made up for it with domestic uh uh guests, so.Despite uh what you've heard of the airlines pulling um guidance and talking about cautious economy and even some of the uh cruise lines and, and hotels, Disney and for uh it's part, Comcast, they've reported very strong uh domestic numbers for the parks, specifically Orlando, which are the biggest um uh properties and parks for uh for both uh names.So that diversification actually adds a lot, uh, whether it's with especially we have macro uncertainty.

I have to ask you, John, there's just a broader question, you know, consumers, uh, and you're, you're looking at the same consumer sentiment surveys that we do, increasingly negative, sour, Jonathan. I mean, given that, I just have to ask you, were you, were you surprised by this Disney print and guidance as positive as it was?

I think uh there are a number of investors on the street who were expecting um do numbers because the uh pricing for Disney park ticket is pretty high. It's above that of the, um, uh, it's, it's above what most of can afford for consumers, uh, the average consumer in the US, uh, with that said,Despite the um the consumer sentiment numbers coming down, uh, the segment that Disney targets is more the higher end. The higher end has been a little bit more resilient, uh, and that's been coming out during this earning season. Uh, I mean, the, the vacations at Disney are are quite pricey, and the, um,Especially if you uh stay at the hotels at the resorts, that those are above average, far above average in terms of the hotel rates. So, uh, I wasn't as surprised because of the fact that they target the higher end and also even um even uh the middle or lower income who could.Find this to be quite pricey of an experience. There's a lot of fans. There's a lot of, uh, just devout fans of the IP of the intellectual property that Disney has, and they'll say, you know, we'll just take one big splurge for the year. Uh, it's, it's above our budget, but we'll just save everything and is, uh, blow our savings for the year on the Disney vacation, and they'll go to Star Wars, they're going to Marvel, they'll go to uh Disney Princess.Prentices, uh, all that, um, uh, passionate fans, they just will, they're willing to pay above board prices in order to experience that.

Jonathan, what about internationally because there was a little bit of pullback in China and Hong Kong, and I wonder if any of that has to do with the tariffs. Is there any kind of brand, um, reputational risk that, uh, Disney has to worry about internationally?

So, internationally, the uh softness was, I was in China, uh, management, Disney management talked about that uh the Chinese consumers actually challenged, those were their exact words, but they're still attending. uh in uh my research that I published, I had a, a chart in terms of the attendance, year over year attendance at the international parks. It was actually up low single digits.Uh, for the March quarter. So while they, they were attending while people were still going to the parks internationally, they just weren't spending as much, particularly in China. In terms of tariff impact, in terms of brand um damage that the US has suffered, it would be more in the in the US the domestic parks, and again, uh, they knocked it out of the park with the domestic parks, uh, Orlando andUh, and LA in terms of the attendance, in terms of the uh capital capita per capita spend, uh, occupancy levels, uh, and yeah, they just, uh, it'sThe, there are lesser uh international visitors to the domestic parks and Canada is one of our biggest, um, uh, biggest, uh, visitors uh in terms of, um, uh, tourism, and yes, they can, uh, you have news of those pull back, those from Canada coming back, butBut Disney has dynamic pricing as a way to reach its domestic fan base and provide promotions, provide incentives for them to book now, book in the near future, and that's also another thing that Disney has, which isis different from like even the airlines. They have a a long lead time. People book ahead even into the holidays for Disney vacation, so they have uh they have good visibility in terms of the uh the bookings rate.

Jonathan, thank you so much appreciate it.

Thank you.

Shares of Occidental Petroleum in Focus following its first quarter earnings report. Yahoo Finances Nere here with the numbers.

Yeah, Julie, so Occidental Petroleum are reporting adjusted earnings per share of 87 cents. That beat at Wall Street estimates for 78 cents. Uh, they're seeing their capital expenditure at $7.2 billion to $7.4 billion and they had previously seen that to be between $7.4 billion and $7.6 billion. So, um, that is right in line.With the street estimate of $7.5 billion but look, this is a company that has been talking about reducing its debt. That's one of its main priorities and in their slides they're showing that the year to date have reduced their debt by $2.3 billion. It'll be interesting to see, to hear in their earnings call, whether or not there is talk about this production.Peak in the shale in shalele because we had Diamondback CEO yesterday that was talking about how he believes that US shale production has peaked, that he was pointing to activity lower crew activity uh in in the shale area and if that is the case, he's also talking about it being decreasing this quarter because of the oil price.Uh, I just got off the phone with Ed Hurst earlier just before looking at this, uh, print, and he was telling me, look, in the Permian Basin, if the oil price goes below 70%, they don't want to drill more. Uh, the cost of drilling has gone up, the labor costs have gone up to drill and the gas and, and the oil.As you drill, it's getting gassier and gassier, so it's more difficult. So you have to drill deeper, you have to drill more lateral, so it'll be interesting to see if there's any commentary about what's happening with these oil prices and the production that we're hearing about. Yeah, definitely.

All right, thank you, appreciate it. Thank you.Time now for to watch Thursday, May 8th, sponsored by Tasty Trade. Starting off on the earnings front, we're gonna be getting another round of earnings tomorrow. Among them are Shopify, Anheuser-Busch, and ConocoPhillips. Shopify announcing results for the first quarter before the markets open. Analysts expecting Shopify's Q1 results to look strong from customers buying early to avoid tariffs. Investors will listen closely for any commentary on guidance, how the surge in Q1 can impact the coming quarters.

Taking a look at the labor force, initial jobless claims status out in the morning. Economists forecast jobless claims will decrease to 230,000 compared to the week prior, signaling that layoffs are slowing down and that the labor market is showing some resilience. And

moving over to housing, weekly mortgage rate data from Freddie Mac coming out in the afternoon. Last week's reading fell to 6.76%, marking the second consecutive week of declines.

That'll do it for today's market domination over time. Be sure to come back tomorrow at 3 p.m. Eastern for all of your coverage leading up to and after the closing bell. But

don'tgo anywhere on the other side of the break. It's asking for a trend. I've got you covered for the next half hour with the latest and greatest market

moving stories, including an exclusive interview with FedEx CEO and President Raj Shubramania. You don't want to miss it.