Fed forecasts one rate cut this year, leaves rates unchanged

The Federal Reserve remains on pause, leaving the federal funds target range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at its June meeting. In the Federal Open Market Committee statement, officials say "modest further progress" is being made in the fight to bring inflation down to its 2% target.

In its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, officials reduced the number of cuts they see this year to one from three. In 2025, they now see 100 basis points worth of cuts, up from 75 previously.

Yahoo Finance's Jennifer Schonberger reports the breaking details.

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This post was written by Stephanie Mikulich.

Video Transcript

No change that reserve holding great set in the range of five and a quarter to 5.5%.

But scaling back the number of rate cuts this year to one from the three though it was a very close call because eight officials saw two cuts this year while seven saw one and four saw no cuts at all.

Next year.

Officials have revised the number of cuts to four from three previously.

This as officials raised their inflation forecast for this year to 2.8% from 2.6 previously and changed key language in the statement from saying that there had been a lack of further progress towards the committee's 2% inflation target to there has been quote modest further progress.

Now officials against stated that they won't cut rates until they gained greater confidence that inflation is moving back to their 2% target.

Now, the neutral rate, that's the rate that neither boosts nor slows growth that was revised higher to 2.8% from 2.6% previously, officials retained their outlook for the unemployment rate at 4% which is the prevailing rate for unemployment.

Right.

Now and they also retained their outlook for GDP at 2.1%.

This decision was unanimous back to you.

What's your take?

I mean, listen, you, you know, the fed backwards and forwards, they hold rate steady.

We expected that they do indicate as you noted only one rate, only one cut coming this year.

So that's a change as you read through this.

Uh Jennifer, what surprises you in the statement?

I think Josh, if we look at the dot plot, there's a lot of division within the fed.

I mean, they were al al almost evenly split down.

The this could have easily been to cuts right.

There were eight officials who saw cutting rates twice this year and I think that CP I report that we got this morning probably influenced them because officials are able to make changes to their interest rate projections coming into that second day of the meeting.

So it would be interesting to see what PA says during the Q and A here at 230 because he's going to have to walk the line of his colleagues.

Is he a little bit more Dovish?

Which camp is in the one, the two, probably not the four that say no cuts.

The fact that we did see a change in language now there's modest further progress from lack of further progress.

I think that's a hat tip to this morning.

CP I again though, we're going to have to see more consecutive quarters of what we saw on CP I this morning for the Fed to feel comfortable to cut Jen.

Thank you so much.

Appreciate it.

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