Former President Donald Trump has won the New Hampshire Republican primary by 55% against former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Could this mean a Trump-Biden rematch in the 2024 Presidential elections?

Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner joins Yahoo Finance Live to weigh in on what to expect in the coming months and which sectors could win big if Trump is re-elected. Speaking on global trade, Gardner expects that a Trump presidency "would go forward on expanding the [trade] tariffs.”

Gardner sees a clear path to Trump’s nomination by the GOP, stating “the party’s over" for Trump's competition ever since the start of the former president's fraud trials in 2023. Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Rick Newman breaks down the factors surrounding Trump’s possible victory in the GOP primary and whether the former president stands a chance of reelection.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Editor's note: This article was written by Eyek Ntekim

Video Transcript

- With former President Donald Trump winning the New Hampshire Primary Tuesday with nearly 55% of the vote, bringing the nation a step closer to a rematch between President Biden and former President Trump later this year. A second Trump presidential term could bring the US back to an era of protectionism. And if that were the case, domestic steel, aluminum, and lumber companies might win big.

For more on this, we turn to Brian Gardner, who is the Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist and Yahoo Finance's columnist, Rick Newman. Great to have you both, here with us today. Rick and Brian, as we're kind of continuing to evaluate this, one of the larger overhangs is the fact that even in international policy previously, we still haven't had some of those purchase agreements be followed through on.

Now whether that's because of the pandemic that ensued and the timing leading up to the election, all of these things. There is still a larger question of what would be the US's stance internationally here? And Brian, I'll go to you first on this.

BRIAN GARDNER: So if it is Donald Trump who wins the 2024 election, then I think the platform is pretty clear that they are going-- that a Trump administration would go forward on expanding the tariffs. And I think enforcement of the tariff mechanisms would become more of a focal point.

Whether it was because of the pandemic, whether the Biden administration was preoccupied with other matters, the followthrough on those agreements going back to the Trump 1.0 administration hasn't been robust. So I think you're going to see a much more aggressive followthrough on previous agreements and really stepping them up, not just vis a vis China, but across the rest of the world.

- Brian, do you think Trump is at this point in pretty much a sure bet here for the GOP nomination?

BRIAN GARDNER: Oh, the party's over. Turn out the light. The party's over. It is done. It really was finished back in the spring the moment that the Manhattan DA walked out with the first prosecution. I think you can, especially in retrospect, but we can say that the GOP race ended on that day. They went through the machinations, but it was over then.

- Rick, do you agree with what Brian is saying? I think also, just taking it a step further, do you see the GOP party rallying behind a Trump nomination?

RICK NEWMAN: Right. Yeah, Brian's right. Unless there is a health issue with Trump, he will be the nominee. And I think he will be the nominee, even if he is convicted in one of these trials that's underway. It's not clear we'll even get to a trial by the time of the convention over the summer or even election day. But I think, as Brian pointed out, he becomes more popular Republicans through all these prosecutions.

There were some warning signs for Trump though in New Hampshire, which point to some things that are going to come up in the general election. He lost independents in New Hampshire by almost a 2 to 1 ratio. And independents, particularly in about six or seven swing states, are crucial voters. Now they voted for Nikki Haley for the most part last night. That does not automatically mean that Joe Biden would get those voters in a Trump-Biden rematch.

So this is kind of a familiar problem for Trump, which is that he has devotional support among his base, but he has very shaky support among independents, suburban women and voters like that, who are pretty likely to decide the race. So the whole question, similar to in 2020, is this, is Trump's base enough to put him over the top? And that's very much an open question.