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Eli Lilly (LLY) will soon be releasing trial data on its small-molecule GLP-1 weight-loss pill, Orforglipron. The drug could be pivotal for the obesity treatment market due to its accessibility.
Evan Seigerman, BMO Capital Markets managing director of biopharma equity research, joins Market Domination hosts Julie Hyman and Josh Lipton to share insights on the upcoming data release, supply chain challenges, and patient adherence issues.
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So what is for if I want to invest in one of these companies, what is the what is the next key thing I need to be watching for?
It is all about Orforglipron. So this is Lilly's small molecule GLP-1 pill. Data is coming second quarter, which is next week, could come on earnings which is May 1st. So we had their VP of metabolic research talking about the program, very positive body language talking about blinded data. When we look at that, you know, they can kind of tell which, you know, what the trial is going to show and she her body language was very positive, very pleased with what she was seeing. So we're very bullish on Lily.
How how is that one different than the stuff that's on the market?
So this is a pill daily pill. So think of it as Wegovy and a pill, same target, semaglutide a little more kind of higher efficacy, but that's a once weekly injectable. So this could be for patients who don't want the shot, who are sick of taking the shot, needle phobic, or other parts of the world where you can't really get the shot.
Supply constraints generally, Evan. How are those sort of evolving?
Most definitely. So Lilly's done a great job. They are, you know, able to supply the market. Um they are actually building up Orforglipron ahead of a launch so they don't have the ZeBound issues. Novo has finally recovered, you know, bringing starter doses into this um into the supply chain as of January. So we're starting to see new patients on Wegovy, but that really took a hit for Novo. I mean, the new patient starts for Wegovy are really slowing versus ZeBound.
I was interested in you you talked about in your note reviewing um the the conference that a lot of patients have trouble staying on these drugs for longer than a year. What can and what are some of these drug makers doing to try to work with doctors to to keep that consistency?
Right, and that's a that's a huge issue because they're very powerful drugs and they work well if you're on them. Um what we're seeing is that, you know, providers who are not really trained to be prescribing these are prescribing them. If you don't have the proper support, you're not going to do well. So you need either, you know, trained clinicians in obesity medicine, you know, really intensive telehealth platforms like Ro. We had the CEO of Ro, for example, at the conference, engaging with patients, making sure that, you know, when they have side effects, someone's helping with them. When they need to reorder, they're being reminded to reorder their drug. And if they switch insurance, they have someone that can help navigate. It's that's a huge issue of course if they have to get a reauthorization.
Evan, do you see Medicare coverage for GLP-1s for obesity ultimately?
Eventually, it's, you know, DC is a tough place to predict right now. You know, I don't want to get into the business of figuring out what's happening in DC. We did have some movement last year with the Biden administration, but with Trump probably not going to push forward on that. Troia, which is the treatment and reduce obesity act, had been floated. Remember, Medicare Part D plans can cover ZeBound for sleep apnea and Wegovy for cardiovascular disease, but not a lot of the Part D plans do. So it's kind of it's tough in a year where they're trying to reup the tax cuts of 2017.
