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And we want to bring in Chris Williamson, S&P Global Market Intelligence, chief business economist. Chris, it's great to have you. So talk about the two data points that we were just going through. When you take a look at the manufacturing data that we're getting out from ISM, you compare that to the jobs market and maybe some of that strength, if you can call that, that we are seeing there. What is your read on where things stand for the US economy?

Yeah, so it's some interesting numbers there, a lot to digest in a very short space of time, especially those diverging labor market numbers. Um, certainly we're seeing signs in our manufacturing survey here at S&P Global as well of a softening employment trend in the manufacturing sector, um, as we saw in the ISM numbers just now. Uh, and both of those surveys signaling, uh, weak demand trends, so new order inflows. They're really soft at the moment. Um, really quite a worrying forward-looking indicator. Um, but it's it's quite a strange time at the moment. What we're hearing from companies is there's been a bit of a pause in spending and in hiring at the moment ahead of the election. The uncertainty caused by the presidential election is has really led to this soft patch that we've got at the moment. And what we saw in the survey, for example, was future expectations, they actually picked up. So companies are getting a little bit more confident that in a year's time, things are going to be better than they are now, but they've just got to get through all of this uncertainty, come out the other end, and things should should start to look a bit brighter. But at the moment, we're stuck in this soft patch and those employment numbers in particular are weak, but the the positive sign here is that those price numbers came down, the ISM numbers, price numbers came down. We've got soft readings in our manufacturing survey as well. So that just opens that door that little bit more potentially further for the Fed to cut rates if it needs to.

What do you think that could could potentially look like next, Chris? Obviously, that is the street's favorite game right now, dissecting any signals of whether or not we'll get 25 or 50.

We think 25, but we think two more 25s this year. Uh, so they'll step down the pace of which they're cutting. They don't want to be seen to be to be almost talking the economy down by saying we need these, we've we've got to get things back on even keel because things are falling apart. What we saw in the manufacturing survey is some respondents with were saying they're actually got a little bit worried about the outlook because of all this talk about gosh, all this stimulus needed. They've gone too far, demand's slowing too much, Fed's getting worried. So the Fed wants to try to get that argument balance back, so reign it in to say that we're just doing what's necessary to keep things keep things rolling along. And at the moment, it's it's I said, it's very soft picture, but I would argue that you've actually got some some upside. So while we've got two 25 basis point cuts in for the rest of the year and some some further cuts in for next year, I think the the upsides are potentially being overlooked. We certainly need to keep them in mind. Now in particular, you know, this geopolitical uncertainty we've got at the moment in particular about the the presidential elections, if you get some clarity beyond that, there's room for a little bit of a bounce here. You've also got stimulus in China now, which interestingly comes at a time when we think there was quite a bit of pre-purchasing earlier in the year, a lot of shipments coming from China. Those companies were trying to get ahead of the game that if there was potential for tariffs and protectionism, they got their shipping in earlier. Remember all these shipping rates spiked higher. That was people moving goods earlier. So there was this bringing forward spending and orders from from the from the second half of the year into the first half. So we're paying the price of that now. We've got this weaker global looking manufacturing picture in recent months. That's partly a symptom of that. So again, you've got some upside. Once that inventory shift has taken place, you're back to a period where demand's starting to solidify again. So it's going to be interesting, I think, to see how this plays out, but certainly a lot of people seem to be overlooking those upsides that are around at the moment.