There's a shift on the horizon in modern warfare. Ukraine recently dealt a blow to several Russian air bases with the use of drone attacks. As of February 2025, tactical unmanned aerial vehicles account for 60 to 70% of damaged and destroyed Russian systems. That's according to the Royal United Services Institute. For more on the changes to modern warfare and ripple effects for the defense sector, we have Gubelli Funds portfolio manager Tony Bancroft. Tony, it is always good to see you and the reason, of course, Tony, you are the perfect guest for this segment, is not only are you well-known analyst, you are in fact Lieutenant Colonel, uh, Tony Bancroft, United States Marine Corps. So, we we are lucky to have you. And I want to start, Tony, with those reports we saw, uh, Ukraine's really unprecedented drone operation striking deep inside Russian territory. When you saw that, Tony, when you saw those reports, what was your reaction?

Thanks, Josh. Always great to be back. And you know, I think, you know, Ukraine, uh, one-upped, um, Israel on on next, uh, next level next generation, uh, warfare and you know, the US Department of Defense has taken notes, uh, and this is how things are going to be going, uh, going forward. Uh, you're going to see a lot of, uh, asymmetric warfare, obviously a lot of use of of drones and and, uh, you know, artificial intelligence and, um, cyber, you know, cyber attacks, uh, you name it. Uh, however you can imagine it is going to be how it's going to be done. And you know, that was just sort of a case in point the fact that, you know, 117, you know, how many or $1,000 drones took out a third of the, uh, third, second or third largest air forces' um, uh, strategic bomber capability is is legitimate. So, you're going to see drones, you know, be be a lot of DOD and European spending going forward. I think right now it's about 15 billion in the US DOD budget, um, and it's probably going to go to 25 billion as expected about by 2030 and and doubling that almost in 2035. So I think we we we like the industry, we like the, uh, companies that are going to supply parts to them and, uh, we're we're definitely, you know, bullish on it.

What are some of those companies, Tony?

Yeah, you know, we we sort of like the the parts maker. I mean, you know, I know there's a lot of drone suppliers out there but, uh, you know, companies like, um, Textron and Honeywell and L3 Harris, um, Ducommun, uh, all make, you know, all sort of make these parts that go into all these, you know, these systems that are obviously, you know, they're pretty, you know, they're pretty, uh, intricate, uh, high technology systems that need certain structures and certain, uh, electronics in them and we sort of like those those guys. And they're diversified as well because they're on multiple programs and they're also on the commercial side. And, uh, they're they're good cash flow businesses with, you know, long secular tailwinds.

I have to ask you a broader question, maybe, you know, as as you talk about how you you think maybe the the future battlefield changes and yes, it'll still involve tanks and fighter jets and battleships that more increasingly rely on AI and autonomous systems. Is the US well prepared for that shift, Tony, in your opinion?

You know, I think they are. I think the US is actually, um, I I I I I think sometimes, you know, the the narrative is that the US is is fighting the last battle and and and and it's somewhat true. And that's somewhat true always when you talk about, you know, warfare. I'm sure all the way back to to Sun Tzu and and you name it. Uh, but the US is pretty capable and the weapon systems we have are are are lethal and you know, we're still by far the largest drone builder in the world. I mean there's, you know, as far as for military drones. Um, you know, uh, the US is is the most dominant. Always have been and I think will we will continue to be. And we'll we'll we'll sort of we'll pair that with, uh, you know, with our with our manned systems that are able to control it. You know, a lot of this is going to come down to as as we go further into it, you know, who is going to be able to essentially out hack who or who is going to be able to jam out jam who. And at some point you're probably going to need, you are going to need some type of, uh, manned manned system that can be closest, you know, the node they would they would call it, be closest to, uh, you know, the the autonomous systems or or things that are are capable of being jammed. And you're you're going to need the systems that the US has like the F-35 along with our, you know, the collaborative, uh, collaborative combat aircraft and other and other systems. There's a lot that we have and our long-range fires are by far dominant, you know, when when it comes to, um, being able to reach out and touch somebody.