What could change in Trump's tax bill when it reaches the Senate

House lawmakers passed President Trump's "big, beautiful" tax and spending bill, advancing it to the US Senate. House Republicans notably raised the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to $40,000 in their talks.

Yahoo Finance Washington correspondent Ben Werschkul joins the Catalysts team on the areas of the bill that are likely to change as Senators deliberate, including the SALT deduction cap and softening cuts to Medicaid.

To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here.

00:00 Speaker A

Well, the House finally approving a President Trump-backed budget bill, sending the legislation to the Senate after two tense all-night debates. For more on this, our own Ben Wershkul has been monitoring all of this. So, Ben, what are the areas ripe for changes when the bill gets to the Senate? What should we be watching?

00:18 Ben Wershkul

Yeah, morning, Julie. There's about four areas that I think this week have emerged as especially ripe for, for amendments coming in the Senate. The Senate has promised they're going to change this bill. First one is the SALT deduction. This was a last-minute kind of conversation. This was a last minute um, concession by um, Speaker Mike Johnson to GOP, GOP blue state, um, representatives from states, New York, New Jersey, and California. It's notable that there are a total of zero senators, as zero Republican senators from those three states, and it's emblematic of a lot less support for SALT overall in the Senate. So Thune has already said, he's already told Punchbowl News he has a, his chamber could have a big problem, quote, with that, with that, with that provision, so there's could be changes there. Others around is around Medicaid. Um, a lot, another last-minute change was to increase the, um, stringency around Medicaid, potential Medicaid cuts. This, this has an outside effects, outsized effects on red states. One senator in particular, Josh Hawley of Missouri, has already set noted that he has a million voters who are on Medicaid, and, and consider their coverage threatened. He's talked about, um, bringing that back, perhaps even, even eliminating Medicaid cuts altogether. Another one is green energy credits, a similar dynamic here. This is Republicans don't tout this, but a lot of bipartisan green energy credits have an outsized effects in red states. They help those Republican senators like them even if they don't like to talk about it. And there's a, a range of senators who have talked about, about bringing that back. And then a fourth smaller one, but closely watched by the business world is around AI. There's a little provision in there that would ban states from regulating AI for the next decade. That's one that Marsha Blackburn and the Senate has already kind of poured cold water on this week saying she has a law in her state around artist likeness and AI that she likes, and she does, she wants to keep. So she may, um, push for a change there. So that's four areas that are going to be focused. Um, is, as for overall investor concerns here, these are two of these provisions would make the bill more expensive. One would make it cheaper. Um, and one I don't think would have any effect on it at all. But it doesn't change the overall parameters here, which is this, this is a bill that's set to add three trillion dollars or more to, to deficits, to the national debt over the coming decade. So those investor concerns aren't likely to change depending on, on what the Senate does.

04:36 Speaker A

Um, Ben, those various items of contention, um, what does that mean for the timeline for the bill?

04:50 Ben Wershkul

Yeah, so Speaker Johnson reiterated this morning he wants this to the president's desk by July 4th. Um, President Trump said the same thing in a Truth Social post. Um, I think that's ambitious. There's going to be a back and forth here. Obviously any change that happens in the Senate would have to get approved again in the house. So there's going to be a good amount of back and forth here. The real kind of crushing deadline is the debt ceiling which, um, Treasury Secretary Yellen has said needs to be addressed and is in this bill by the end of July. So that's, that's the kind of, that's the, uh, motivating deadline, I think, on all sides to get this done is before the August recess. So that's, that's what I think people are watching depending on how much back and forth there is between the House and the Senate.

05:53 Speaker A

Ben, thanks so much for keeping us abreast of everything going on. Appreciate it.

06:00 Ben Wershkul

You're welcome. Thanks.