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Consumer sentiment fell to 64.7 in February, as reported by the University of Michigan, over 3 points below what economists were expecting and falling 7 points from the previous month.
Seana Smith and Madison Mills break down the details of February's final consumer sentiment data.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here.
This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.
February's University of Michigan consumer sentiment data crossing the wires right now. You're looking at the number actually falling here, the index falling to 64.7. The estimate was for 67.8, that was the preliminary reading that we did get. The prior month reading was actually 71.7. So we're looking at a pretty dramatic fall here over the past month. Expectations index falling to 64 flat. That was down from 69.5 of the prior month here. When it comes to current economic conditions index, that also declining during the most recent month. Now the expected change in median prices, this is the real key here to this report during the next year, that actually rose to 4.3%. We talk about the fact that consumers are a bit more worried about inflation, what exactly the prices are going to be. That was versus 3.3%, it's the highest level that we've seen since November of 2023. The expected change in median prices during the next 5 to 10 years, that actually rose to 3 and a half percent. So Maddie, that very much is consistent with what we did get in the preliminary reading, just showing that consumers are a little bit more wary and a little bit more worried about what they're seeing in terms of inflation.
Yeah, and it's really interesting to see those inflation expectations ticking up really across the board and not just along those political lines, which is something we had seen post election. I want to take a look at the market reaction here. All the major averages continuing to be under pressure. We also got that manufacturing data this morning coming in weaker than expected, which also put a little bit of a dent in the market rally we'd seen earlier in the week. You got the S&P down about 3/10 of a percent, your tech heavy Nasdaq down nearly 2/10 of a percent. But let's take a look at what we're seeing when it comes to treasuries. Again, after that weaker manufacturing data, you did see yields coming in and you're seeing a continuation of that with the 10-year hovering around 446 there, down about four basis points. Interesting to see that in the context too of just the focus that the Trump administration has had on the 10-year yield. We are continuing to see that coming in here off of this weaker than expected data, specifically when it comes to that consumer sentiment data and also the manufacturing data falling. Quickly just want to mention employment falling specifically in that manufacturing data, which could be a negative signal of what's to come in the labor market.
