The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9 in March. That's lower than the 93.5 economists had been expecting. Yelena Shulyatyeva, The Conference Board's senior US economist, joins Catalysts to discuss what has consumers on edge.
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The Conference Board's March consumer confidence reading coming in at 92.9, falling about five points month-over-month. February's reading had the largest monthly decline since 2021, as consumers weighed that tariff uncertainty in the first month of President Trump's term. Here with more on what the data shows us about the consumer, we've got Yelena Shulyatyeva. She's the Conference Board's Senior US Economist. Yelena, great to have you on here. Talk to me about this number coming in just below the survey estimate, a sign of weakness in the consumer?
Yes, hi, good morning. Uh so, yes, definitely we saw a significant decline. Uh the uh reading, the index uh has fallen below uh the recent pretty narrow range it's been hovering around over the last several years. So, uh we see that as a significant move down. Uh that was also driven by uh expectations. So, both present situation and expectations uh declined, but uh one of the most significant developments uh that we have seen was a decline in financial situation expectations uh from the consumers. So, uh that seems to suggest that uh all this uncertainty uh around economic outlook is really starting to weigh on consumers' assessment uh of how they will fare uh going forward.
You also have median inflation expectations coming in at 5.1%, up from 4.7% the prior month. Inflation expectations, so key to the Federal Reserve, so key to the health of our economy. Are you able to assess out how much of that is driven by tariff headlines?
Tariffs has been mentioned uh in the writings uh uh again in this survey. So, definitely some of it is coming from uh tariffs. It could potentially be, uh you know, uh prices of eggs, for example, and other uh food food uh uh goods. But I think uh that our survey is also echoing uh a bunch of other surveys uh in that respect. And uh as you mentioned, it's definitely uh a significant uh uh indicator for the Fed. Now, they mentioned, and Chair Powell said that during the press conference that the long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. Uh well, you know, if this situation continues and consumers continue to uh suggest that they're worried about uh inflation going forward, that could be, uh you know, a self-fulfilling prophecy uh so to say. And we may see inflation rising on on those inflation expectations.
