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China's stimulus does not address consumer needs: Strategist

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China's central bank has introduced new stimulus measures to combat deflationary trends and boost the economy. Charles Schwab's chief global investment strategist Jeffrey Kleintop joins Catalysts to share his perspective on these initiatives.

Kleintop maintains a cautious stance, stating that "the jury is still out" on the impact of these policies. He notes the "wide range of proposals," suggesting "a sense of urgency" from the central bank to revitalize the nation's economy. However, Kleintop expresses reservations about the long-term market effects, stating, "Only time will tell, but repeated attempts in recent years have not led to lasting gains."

Regarding the Chinese consumer, "I don't think this is a sign that the consumer is getting the support that the consumer needs. Remember, the consumer is now the biggest portion of China's economy, but all the stimulus lately has been directed towards self-sufficiency in semiconductors and green technology - areas where China's been cut off by the rest of the world," he told Yahoo Finance.

00:00 Speaker A

Moving on here, US listed Chinese stocks advancing today after China's CSI 300 index seen its best day since 2020. That move comes after Chinese officials announced a slew of economic stimulus policies, including lower borrowing costs and more stimulus. Could the moves be enough to shore up China's economy after a tough period? For more on that, we're going to bring in Jeffrey Kleintop. He is the chief global investment strategist over at Charles Schwab and Jeffrey, it's great to have you here. Uh how do you read these policy proposals from Beijing? Is this really going to move the needle?

01:18 Jeffrey Kleintop

Uh the jury's out. I I think the Fed paved the way for more stimulus from the People's Bank of China to cut rates without worrying about the currency today. And this wide range of measures, you've got multiple agencies involved and a rare live press conference with a Q&A session indicates a sense of urgency by China to support the economy, but a lower mortgage rate on existing loans might help households, but it doesn't do anything to arrest the decline in property prices or aggregate incomes or or jobs. As a result, it's a positive, but it's unclear how long lasting of an impact this will have on stocks. President Xi in my opinion is not likely pivoting to support for housing and consumers away from support for industry and self-sufficiency, which he views as a security imperative.

02:46 Speaker A

So then Jeffrey, is it to say that maybe this massive rally that we did see today on the heels of this news is a bit of an overreaction to the upside?

03:04 Jeffrey Kleintop

Yeah, I'm afraid we might already know how this is going to end for China. We know that Chinese stocks have rallied 20% in the past when hopes about a stimulus driven turnaround happened. We saw that in May of this year, but that rally fizzled out as details revealed that the plan just wasn't as big or broad as as hoped as it was actually implemented and funding sources were pretty scarce. So, only time will tell, but repeated attempts in recent years have not led to lasting gains. Now, of course, a potential 20% market rally could boost China's consumer sentiment in the near term, but that might be offset by the continued weight of the property market on confidence.

04:07 Speaker A

Yeah, I mean, that's that's my question is what's going to really move the needle and and what will the Chinese economy look like a year from today, Jeffrey? I spoke with an analyst yesterday who is confident that at some point it has to turn around. This is supposed to be the world's biggest economy, but should we be so confident that this story is going to turn around?

04:46 Jeffrey Kleintop

Uh no, no, I don't think this I don't think this is a sign of the consumers getting the support that the consumer needs. Remember, the consumer is now the biggest portion of China's economy, but all the stimulus lately has been directed towards self-sufficiency in semiconductors and green technology in areas where China is being cut off by the rest of the world. And so, while there is manufacturing output growth within China, all that increasing supply isn't being matched by any demand from consumers or businesses within China. So, you're seeing deflation and just a negative spiral there in terms of economic activity. Sure, China stocks are up what, 4% today, 4.3% today, adding to the gains over the past couple of weeks, as they bounce off of a forward PE that's below nine. We're looking at extremely cheap stocks and hopes that more stimulus is going to be coming and you even saw French stocks up 1% today as investors factor in better maybe luxury good demand from Chinese consumers, but I'm not convinced that's going to happen. I think the Chinese consumer is going to remain weak even a year from now.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Catalysts.

This post was written by Angel Smith