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The price of gold (GC=F) recently reached a peak of $2,500 per ounce, with global gold ETF assets under management also hitting a new month-end record of $264 billion for July, according to the World Gold Council. Some strategists envision gold prices even climbing above $3,000 per ounce.
With the advent of likely interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, is now the time to invest in gold and gold exchange-traded funds?
abrdn Director of ETF Investment Strategy Robert Minter joins Wealth! to give insight into the rising price of gold, the inflows of gold ETFs, and how it will play out with rate cuts. abrdn manages its Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL).
"It's the ETF investors that love a rate cut because gold doesn't have an interest rate... And so we did look at the last three times we were at this point in a rate cut cycle... the results were pretty outstanding," Minter tells Yahoo Finance. "So those time periods were 2000, 2006, and 2018, and gold prices went on to rise 57%, 113%, and 69% in those three time periods, respectively. And silver (SI=F) actually did even better at 65%, 318%, and 101%."
Gold futures ticking lower, global physically backed Gold ETFs have seen three straight months of inflows though. And global Gold ETFs hitting $246 billion in assets under management in July. That's a new month-end record according to the World Gold Council. Thanks to investors and central banks trying to cash in on the safe haven asset to discuss if it's time for you to add the commodity to your portfolio, here with us is Robert Minter, Aberdeen Director of ETF Investment Strategy as part of the ETF report brought to you by Invesco QQQ. Robert, great to have you here in studio with us. I mean, what do you make of some of the moves that we've seen in gold that have really put so much more attention around this commodity?
Really interesting because I think it's a case where we get a lot of questions from investors who, you need the next level down in detail to understand exactly what's going on. So, we're at or near all-time highs for the gold price. So you'd think, wow, investors must have piled in and the World Gold Council notes the value of ETF investments in gold is very high, but that's because the price is high. And what ETF investors have actually been doing volume-wise is they have sold 250 tons of gold over the last two years and it takes them back to only holding as much gold in ounces as they did in 2019 as if none of the large spending occurred in COVID or all the inflation has gone. So that's really interesting to us because it means that we're just at the start of a move and not at the end of a move.
Interesting.
Okay. So with that in mind, where are some of the most active gold ETFs that you're seeing catch a bite from investors?
So, where that price rise came from is really interesting as well. It actually came from central banks and treasuries.
Sure.
And we think that trend is going to continue because...
Is that typical when we see especially looking at the US, the beginning of a rate cutting cycle, why would we see central banks leaning further into gold?
So, it's the ETF investors that love a rate cut because gold doesn't have an interest rate, right? So they love when the hurdle is lower, when interest rates are lower, then they like, they like to buy gold. And so we did look at the last three times we're at this point in a rate cut cycle. And the results are pretty, it always can be different, but the results were pretty outstanding. So those time periods were 2000, 2006, and 2018, and gold prices went on to rise 57%, um, 113%, and 69% in those three time periods respectively. And silver actually did even better at 65%, 318%, and 101%. And that's because silver liked the rate cut, but it also liked the turn in the cyclical economy that the rate cut generated.
So are there any other metals, any other precious metals that could outperform gold even then if we were to see even more all-time highs for gold?
Gold is usually the most rate cut sensitive. And so we think with the central banks continuing to buy and ETF investors finally starting to get into the party that has been the gold price rise, that we see some upside there.
Got it.
And it's so interesting, especially considering, I mean, we've got gold talked about in every lexicon from whether it's digital gold to Costco gold bars to gold ETFs here. What do you think is set to see perhaps the most inflows or the most volume given all these different options that investors now have?
So far and away, physical gold ETFs where there's a bar, it's in a vault, it's audited. The serial number on the gold bar is on websites. You can go, you could go on our website and see the serial number of every single bar in our gold ETF. And, um, they like, can't get more transparent than that. And the average person is not going to go contract a bank to hold gold in a vault. Um, holding it in your basement, not the greatest idea, um, regardless of where your basement is, I guess, unless it's at the Fed. Um, so, uh, it's very, it's very easy. You can, of course, buy and sell gold ETFs just like a regular stock.
Robert Minter, who is the Aberdeen director of ETF Investment Strategy. Thanks for so much for joining us here in studio today.
Thank you.
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This post was written by Nicholas Jacobino