President Biden and former President Donald Trump are in the political spotlight this week as they take to the debate stage on Thursday, June 27. China Beige Book International Managing Director Shehzad Qazi joins Market Domination to discuss the two leaders' policy positions on China and what to expect from US-China relations in the next year.
Qazi explains that former President Trump is interested in pursuing about 60% tariffs on China and ending Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR). However, he explains that the debate format will have both presidents trying to outdo each other, asking, "can they actually get any of this agenda of theirs accomplished when they are in office? How realistic are the trade policy promises that they're going to be making?"
He says that "tensions have been rising" in the US-China relationship: "I think specifically as we get into 2025, regardless of who's president, we are going to see that trade war part two play out." He foresees the US becoming stricter about export controls and more serious about "curtailing outbound investment and strategic sectors in China."
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However, Qazi believes that there is still opportunity in China as it remains the world's second-largest economy. "It's about becoming smarter on China finally... you have to track the regulatory environment in China very, very carefully. You can assume that when the economy is in a little bit of trouble, the government will step in and shove a bunch of money into the system to propel growth. It doesn't work that way anymore. The economic model has changed. So it's about tracking the economy as closely and as intelligently as you possibly can. And quite frankly, the Street isn't used to doing that."
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This post was written by Melanie Riehl