Yahoo Finance's exclusive coverage from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland continues as Yahoo Finance sat down with top leaders to discuss the 2024 presidential election. Here are some of the highlights.
Eurasia Group Founder and President Ian Bremmer discusses the 2024 presidential election. “There’s a near-term risk in the sense that once Trump gets the nomination, which is virtually certain, that he will be so much more powerful in the Republican Party,” Bremmer says, “that means that his policy pronouncements… will suddenly have a lot more impact.”
“The only thing standing in the way of Trump winning, is 81-year-old Joe Biden who has a record to run on, but also has a lot of people that feel like he’s not actually up to the job. And that is a serious concern.” Bremmer explains that “our democracy is not well functioning. It is a democracy in crisis.” “The political environment in the U.S. is… more dysfunctional by a long margin than any of the other advance industrial democracies.”
SkyBridge Founder and Managing Partner Anthony Scaramucci discusses the belief at Davos that we are “setting up for another Trump presidency.” “I think if you survey people here over the last several days, they believe that [Former President Donald Trump is] going to win again. They believe that we’re… setting up for another Trump presidency. And I think that there’s [an] age issue with President Biden,” Scaramucci says.
“I think Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump… I think once we start peeling back the onion again, people are going to realize how destructive he was and how damaging he actually was to the country,” Scaramucci explains. “I think the former president is going to have a really tough time in 24’, despite his early successes in these primaries.”
Kenneth Rogoff, Maurits C. Boas Chair of International Economics at Harvard University, notes that “whoever wins in the U.S. election or any of these many elections, is probably going to be a populist. With the only question if they’re a right wing or a left wing populist.”
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius explains that “a lot depends on… what happens not just in the presidential election… but also what happens in the congressional elections. Whether one side has unified control. If you have unified control, there’s typically a lot more fiscal policy legislation than if you have divided government.”
Video Transcript
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IAN BREMMER: There's a near-term risk in the sense that once Trump gets the nomination, which is virtually certain that he will be so much more powerful in the Republican Party. I mean, overnight, he'll have the loyalty of pretty much everybody. The endorsements. The money. The media attention.
And that means that his policy pronouncements to the extent that he makes them will suddenly have a lot more impact. If Trump wins. Of course, last time around, there was a positive market impact to Trump winning. Why? Massive near-term deficit spending. Markets like that. Regulatory rollback. Markets like that. And also, lower taxation.
This time around that would also be true, but it would be counterbalanced by so much of the concerns of American credibility, even credit worthiness around a US that is so dysfunctional, so polarized, and where a new McCarthyism could emerge that would really chill red versus blue, including investability of red versus blue states under a Trump-led political administration.
That wasn't a risk in 2016. That would be a risk in 2025. The only thing standing in the way of Trump winning is 81-year-old Joe Biden, who has a record to run on but also has a lot of people that feel like he's not actually up to the job. And that is a serious concern. Our democracy is not well functioning.
It is a democracy in crisis. And, yes, that is the top issue being discussed at Davos this year. The political environment in the US is more dysfunctional by a long margin than any of the other advanced industrial democracies.
ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI: I think we sat in this tent. I said, Trump will not win re-election. Generally, the view here in 2020 is that he was overwhelmingly going to win re-election. And I think, if you survey people here over the last several days, they believe that he's going to win again.
They believe that we're setting up for another Trump presidency. And I think that there's an age issue with President Biden. I mean, one's 81 but looks a little bit more frail than the 78-year-old. But we have a combined 158 or 59 years of people running for president.
So, I think Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump. And it's not just because of being contrary to the consensus here. I think, once we start peeling back the onion again, people are going to realize how destructive he was and how damaging he actually was to the country. But, I think, the former president is going to have a really tough time in '24 despite his early successes in the primaries.
KENNETH ROGOFF: Whoever wins in the US election or any of these many elections is probably going to be a populist, with the only question if they're a right wing or a left wing populist.
JAN HATZIUS: I think a lot depends on what happens not just in the presidential election, which of course, is very difficult to predict, but also what happens in the Congressional elections, whether one side has unified control. If you have unified control, there's typically a lot more fiscal policy legislation than if you have divided government. Now, unified control is more likely to be unified-Republican control given the Senate map.
