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They say the stock market likes to climb a "wall of worry." Not this market. Friday was an ugly day to end an ugly mid-week reversal, with the S&P 500 (SPX) nearing its March 13 closing low of 5,522. Early this week could be very telling. A break of that key chart support opens up a number of possibilities. The first scenario a decline down to the 5,410-5,420 area, which is the low from early September 2024 as well as a measured move based on the size of the recent double top on the weekly chart. Below there, we could see a trip to the 5,100-5,200 region, the lows from August 2024. There also are a number of possible bullish divergences if the SPX closes at a new corrective low, such as bullish dally momentum divergences -- including the daily moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD) and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI). Also possible are daily market breadth measures such as the percentage of S&P 500 and S&P 100 (OEX) stocks above their 50- and 200-day averages; the SPX McClellan Oscillator and the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator; the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) on the SPX and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX); and the NYSE New 52-Week Lows. Long-term breadth is a concern, as 42% of SPX stocks are above their 200-day average and the danger zone is below 45%. For the OEX, the reading is 52%. For the NDX, it is 44%. The NYSE advance-decline line of New Highs Minus New Lows crossed under its 50-day average for the first time since 9/2023. But the cross so far is minor and both lines have yet to start falling -- which would be a much-greater bearish signal. Friday's breadth was bad, with NYSE advances/total issues at only 20% and up volume/total volume at only 17%. That indicates a pretty good washout. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

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