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On Friday, we expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to report that U.S employment is growing, albeit amid numerous concerns. Our forecast is for March nonfarm payrolls to rise by 125,000, which would be down from February's report of 151,000 new jobs and the three-month average of 200,000. The March consensus has been fluctuating between 125k and 130k. We expect the unemployment rate in March to tick up to 4.2%, which is still healthy and in line with consensus. We expect that average hours worked to remain at 34.1 hours and growth in average hourly earnings to remain at 4.0%. The median unemployment forecast from Fed governors and bank presidents in the Summary of Economic Projections is now 4.4% for 2025 (up from 4.3% at the time of the December Fed meeting). The 2026 and 2027 estimates are still 4.3%; the long-term estimate is still at 4.2%. Based on the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta jobs calculator, nonfarm payrolls would need to average approximately 113,000 a month to hold the unemployment rate at 4.1% over the next 12 months. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.4% over the next 12 months, consistent with the new estimate from Fed officials, monthly payrolls would average approximately 71,500, according to the Atlanta Fed calculator. Any meaningful uptick in layoffs would start to appear in initial jobless claims, which are reported every Thursday. The current four-week average of 224,000 is well below the 300,000 that might be a recession warning. With many job cuts announced by the federal government and the potential for additional job losses by government contractors and institutions that may lose funding, we will take a close look at our forecasts if the four-week average stays above 250,000 for a few weeks. The services sector is critical to our forecast for continuing GDP growth. Will be watching private service-providing payrolls on Friday as well as the ISM services indices, which will be reported on Thursday.

Despite bursts of outperformance, small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps year to date -- as they have over the past five years. But they may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the trade and tariff debate, or fallout from unrest in the Middle East, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, issues in China, or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. Finally, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky, but despite those risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This morning's release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be the third, and final, update of 4Q GDP. The update last month indicated 4Q real GDP rose at an annualized 2.3% pace, a slight deceleration from 3.1% growth in 3Q. The all-important consumer economy remained very strong through the holidays, which provides a tough comparison for 1Q. Consumer spending, designated as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the GDP report, rose 4.2% and contributed 2.79 percentage points of the 2.3% growth in 4Q GDP. Private domestic investment subtracted 1.05 points, contracting 5.7%, with equipment down 9.0% against 10.8% growth in 3Q. We don't expect a major revision to 4Q GDP this morning. Between 1999 and 2023, the average absolute revision to the quarterly percentage change in real GDP was just 30 basis points, according to the BEA. PCE was boosted by the huge services component, which was up a solid 3.3% on top of 2.8% growth in 3Q24. Consumer spending on goods rose 6.1%. Within goods, durables were up 12.1%, which shows no hint of recession, and nondurables were up 3.0%. Residential fixed investment rose 5.4% in 4Q. We expect approximately 1.1% growth in 1Q25. Government consumption and expenditures were up 2.9%, with the federal government up 4.0%, and state and local government up 2.2%. National Defense posted 4.7% growth, extending a 13.9% gain in 3Q. On April 30, the BEA will release its advance estimate for 1Q25 GDP. We expect 1Q24 growth of 1.6%. The consumer services category (which represents 47% of GDP) is an important component of our forecast for 1Q and for 2% growth in 2025. It is normally a stable category amid elevated uncertainty on tariffs and falling consumer confidence. It includes hard-to-avoid expenses such as rent, utilities, healthcare, and insurance. The ISM Services Index showed expansion for an eighth consecutive month in February and has indicated expansion in 54 of the last 57 months.