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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is the largest bank in Japan in terms of market capitalization and assets, with an 8.0% share of all domestic loans as of March 2024. It is the largest non-Chinese bank group globally and has a balance sheet slightly larger than those of JPMorgan Chase and HSBC Holdings. MUFG’s operations in Japan account for around half of profit, banking in Thailand and Indonesia for around 15%, and equity-method earnings from Morgan Stanley most of the rest.

American International Group is one of the largest insurance and financial services firms in the world and has a global footprint. It operates through a wide range of subsidiaries that provide property, casualty, and life insurance. The company recently spun off its life insurance operations (Corebridge), but still retains a minority stake.

Well, we've finally reached "Liberation Day" and will see if the stock market has discounted all the rumors. Is it time to buy the news, or is the tariff bite worse than the tariff bark? Will the S&P 500 (SPX) break to new corrective lows, possibly heading a lot closer to 5,000 before we see 6,000 again? We continue to lean toward a contrarian bullish outcome, this as sentiment is abysmal and it seems like the majority of the investment world is looking for and preparing for the worst. In addition, about 60 of the stocks in the SPX have fallen between 15% and 44% so far in 2025, meaning that there already has been quite a washout in many names. One thing aiding stocks is the drop in Treasury yields and the patterns they have been tracing out over the past five months. The 10-year has dropped from 4.39% to a close on Tuesday at 4.16%. The five-year has fallen from 4.12% to 3.91%. While the declines are small, both maturities are potentially tracing out head-and-shoulders tops. The neckline for the 10-year is in the 4.1%-4.2% area, with the left shoulder, the head, and the right shoulder completed. A break of the neckline could open the door for an initial measured move to 3.7%, and maybe down to 3.5%. The most-recent closing low was in September 2024 at 3.62%. The five-year may have broken its neckline already, as it is difficult to draw a horizontal line because the recent low of right shoulder is below the low of the left shoulder low. Anyway, it's possible the five-year drops to the 3.4%-3.5% area. The recent low from September was 3.4%. The one negative about falling rates is that they imply a weakening economy. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

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