Bond market signals economy is in 'seasonal growth slowdown'
The 10-year yield (^TNX) has been declining for six weeks in a row and is now trading at its lowest level this year, leading some to wonder if the bond market (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) is signaling a growth slowdown. Strategas Securities head of fixed income research Tom Tzitzouris and Russell Investments chief investment strategist Paul Eitelman join Catalysts to discuss the bond market's trend. "The bond market is trying to tell us that the US economy, temporarily, is in a seasonal growth slowdown," Tzitzouris explains to hosts Madison Mills and Seana Smith. "Another thing that the bond market is telling us is that the fears of a trade war were deeply, vastly overblown ... there's going to be eventually tariffs somewhere along the way, but it's not likely to be a full-blown trade war and one that has a prolonged impact on inflation." Meanwhile, equities (^GSPC, ^IXIC, ^DJI) face high valuations amid policy uncertainty. "The S&P 500 index is tracking 16% earnings growth at this stage," Eitelman says, which is better than expected. "On top of that, we're starting to see earnings growth broaden out now; it's not just the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks generating earnings growth ... that broadening out, from a fundamental perspective, I think is a positive for the medium-term," he adds. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Catalysts here. This post was written by Josh Lynch
