Fed's Williams and Barkin soothed worries about any rate hikes in 2024

Neither New York Fed president John Williams nor Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin raised the prospect of rate hikes while speaking Monday, offering more assurances to investors who are still hoping for rate cuts from the central bank in 2024.

Williams, in fact, said at the Milken Institute Conference that "I think we'll have rate cuts" while also emphasizing that "policy is in a very good place [now] and we have the time to collect more, so steady as she goes."

"But it's really looking at all the data."

John Williams, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks during the Semafor 2024 World Economy Summit in Washington, DC, on April 18, 2024. (Photo by SAUL LOEB / AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)
John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images) (SAUL LOEB via Getty Images)

Barkin, speaking at the Columbia Rotary Club in South Carolina, said he is optimistic that current rates will be enough to eventually bring inflation down and that the Fed can afford to be patient due to a strong job market.

"The recent data whiplash has only confirmed the value of the Fed being deliberate," Barkin said. "The economy is moving toward better balance, but no one wants inflation to reemerge."

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank president Thomas Barkin speaks to the Economic Club of New York in New York City, U.S., February 8, 2024.  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank president Thomas Barkin in February. (REUTERS/Brendan McDermid) (REUTERS / Reuters)

The comments come after the Fed’s interest rate-setting committee decided last week to keep its benchmark rate in a range of 5.25%-5.50%, a 23-year high, at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting.

The fed funds rate has been in this range since July 2023.

The committee said in its latest policy statement that "in recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective."

Officials reiterated more clarity would be needed in the outlook for inflation returning to target before cutting rates.

Inflation has shown a lack of progress in the first three months of the year after a steady decline in the second half of last year.

Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

"The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent," the statement read.

But Fed Chair Jay Powell soothed markets by making it clear in a press conference Wednesday that "it is unlikely the next policy move will be a hike."

Barkin, a voting member of the Fed’s interest rate-setting committee, seemingly echoed the view that the Fed is not looking at hiking rates right now but does need greater confidence inflation is moving back toward the goal of 2%.

"With this data whiplash over the last few months, it is natural to wonder whether we are experiencing a real shift in the economic outlook or merely one of the bumps we said we expected along the way. Should we take more signal from the past three months, or the prior seven?"

Barkin said that while he does not see the economy overheating, the Fed knows how to respond if it does. And if the economy slows more significantly, the Fed will take the necessary measures there as well.

If the economy does cool, Barkin said he believes a recession won’t be as bad as the financial crisis of 2008. Job losses would likely be fewer, and businesses have already prepared for a pullback, having slowed hiring, cut costs, managed inventories, and deferred investment.

Despite a cooler-than-expected jobs report for the month of April, Barkin characterized the job market as strong, noting that he thinks high rates will eventually slow the economy.

Barkin believes the economy has yet to feel the full impact of higher rates because most consumers and businesses locked in lower rates near pandemic-era lows.

"I am optimistic that today’s restrictive level of rates can take the edge off demand in order to bring inflation back to our target,” Barkin said.

Markets are getting a boost from a "Goldilocks" jobs report that struck the balance in providing welcome news for both the markets and the Fed.

More than two-thirds of bets are now on a September rate cut from the Fed, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, following a jobs report Friday that provided welcome news for both the markets and the Fed.

Most traders now expect at least two cuts by the end of the year.

When asked how many more months of data like the cooler jobs report are needed to cut rates, Williams said Monday that "it's really looking at the totality of the data, not just looking at an employment report or a CPI or other piece of information. You really want to make sure we're looking at the broad picture."

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