Will Zoe's Kitchen Stock Rebound in 2018?

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Mediterranean chain Zoe's Kitchen (NYSE: ZOES) recently reported its 2017 business results, and while the year was a tough one for shareholders, it looks like the company could get back on track soon.

Key metrics are improving, and management's initiatives to revamp the dining experience look like they're finally paying off.

An external view of Zoe's new pilot store in North Carolina. The building is ultra-modern in gray and black, and features a vertical bank of yellow and orange lights on the corner capped with a ZK logo.
An external view of Zoe's new pilot store in North Carolina. The building is ultra-modern in gray and black, and features a vertical bank of yellow and orange lights on the corner capped with a ZK logo.

Zoe's Kitchen new pilot store in North Carolina. Image source: Zoe's Kitchen.

The most important 2017 figure

Zoe's reported a 0.3% same-store sales increase in the fourth quarter. It wasn't enough to reverse the slide from the rest of the year, though, as full-year same-store sales ended down 2%.

Part of the blame could be laid on the hurricanes that battered the Southeast U.S., Zoe's home market. Back in the third quarter, management said its comps were down an extra 0.9% because of the storms and would have been positive otherwise.

Also to blame was the fast-casual industry itself -- a dining concept that lies somewhere between fast food and traditional table service. That concept has gained in popularity in recent years (think Chipotle and Panera Bread), and many chains have expanded to capitalize on the trend. However, the expansion seems to have been overdone, and foot traffic has turned negative at many locations.

Though its comps were down as well, Zoe's results could have been much worse. According to restaurant research group TDn2K, fast-casual has been one of the worst-performing segments of the industry over the last few years. Zoe's has been able to at least keep up with the average restaurant's comparables, including in the fourth quarter when the industry as a whole saw the figure turn positive for the first time since early 2016.

Thus, with same-store sales back on the rise and Zoe's beating many of its competitors in that area, a rebound may be in order. Recent changes to the restaurant itself may also be helping.

Menu innovation and consumer trends

As I recently wrote here, Zoe's management has been working to revamp the menu, and it also just opened a new concept store to improve the dining experience. Mediterranean and Middle Eastern-inspired cuisine are also trending positively, which could help Zoe's given the focus of its menu items.

Those internal company changes keep coming, too. A new menu item was just announced -- baked falafel -- as well as a trio of shareable meals aimed at dinner for the busy family and catered events. More food and drink options will be unveiled as the year progresses, including Moroccan-style sangria in the early spring.