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Shareholders might have noticed that Zalando SE (ETR:ZAL) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.5% to €32.85 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €11b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Zalando surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.97 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
See our latest analysis for Zalando
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Zalando's 25 analysts is for revenues of €11.1b in 2025. This would reflect a credible 5.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 21% to €1.18. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €11.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.11 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €38.69, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Zalando at €50.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €23.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Zalando's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.0% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 6.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Zalando is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.