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Shareholders might have noticed that Zalando SE (ETR:ZAL) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.8% to €30.10 in the past week. Results overall were not great, with earnings of €0.04 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit €2.4b and were slightly better than forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
After the latest results, the 25 analysts covering Zalando are now predicting revenues of €11.2b in 2025. If met, this would reflect an okay 4.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 7.9% to €1.12. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €11.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.17 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Zalando
The consensus price target held steady at €39.11, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Zalando analyst has a price target of €50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €23.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Zalando'shistorical trends, as the 6.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 6.8% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.4% annually. It's clear that while Zalando's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.