Chicago, IL – February 20, 2025 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Toll Brothers TOL.
Homebuilders Trade Lower After Toll Brothers Disappoints
The theme this earnings season has been one of expansion as more sectors experience year-over-year growth. Thus far, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are outperforming the index is on pace to exceed that of last year.
Last week was the third consecutive such stretch where we saw markets hit with a sizable morning gap down due to disruptive news. From tariffs and DeepSeek – to last week’s hotter-than-expected inflation data – the market has faced several major headwinds. Its ability to absorb seemingly negative news and rebound in a strong manner speaks to the underlying demand for stocks in this environment.
Unfortunately for homebuilders, they’ve been left in the dust.
Sticky Inflation Casts Doubt on Rate Path
In general, homebuilders are feeling less optimistic about the housing market amid high costs and elevated mortgage rates. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index registered at 42 in February, a 5-point drop from January and the lowest level in 5 months.
Inflation data from January showed part of the Fed’s job – maintaining stable prices – remains quite difficult. The producer price index (PPI) showed wholesale prices rose 0.4% last month, more than the 0.3% projection. January’s PPI rose 3.5% from a year ago.
On the consumer end, headline CPI showed prices increased 3% over the prior year in January, an uptick from December’s 2.9% annual gain. On a monthly basis, headline inflation rose 0.4%.
Excluding food and energy, the “core” CPI displayed an annual increase of 3.3%, while the core measure rose 0.4% on a monthly basis. All figures were above forecasts and higher than those from December.
Notably, market participants pared back bets on interest rate cuts this year, pricing in just one cut following the data.
Toll Brothers Falls Short of Estimates
Toll Brothers appears to be the latest victim. Yesterday evening, the luxury homebuilder came out with fiscal first-quarter earnings of $1.75 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.99/share by 12.06%. The bottom line plunged 22.2% from the year-ago period. Revenues of $1.86 billion also fell short of projections and decreased 4.6% year-over-year.
The important metrics came in light primarily due to impairments and a delayed joint venture property sale. But management noted that affordability constraints and growing inventories are pressuring sales.
The fact that mortgage rates remain high is certainly taking a toll on signing activity in the housing market. A shortage of buildable lots and skilled labor is also limiting home production.
The recent miss was the second such event over the past four quarters. Toll Brothers, a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), has delivered a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of -3.2%.
TOL stock was down more than 8% early Wednesday morning before paring some of the losses.
Bottom Line
Despite weakness from homebuilders, the results out of the Q4 earnings season speak to a resilient corporate backdrop. Total S&P 500 earnings are expected to be up 13.3% from the same period last year on 5.5% higher revenues.
Nearly 400 companies are set to report quarterly results in the shortened trading week ahead, including more than 40 S&P 500 companies. Be sure to stay abreast of the latest reports as the fourth-quarter earnings season continues to wind down.
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