Chicago, IL – December 18, 2024 – Today, Zacks Investment Ideas feature highlights Rocket Labs RKLB, Tesla TSLA, Rigetti Computing RGTI, MicroStrategy MSTR and SoundHoundAI SOUN.
2024 Bull Market Review: 5 Key Lessons
The S&P 500 Index was up nearly 30% in 2024 and enjoyed a landmark year. Whether investors participated or not, reviewing the market can be an invaluable exercise because, though history doesn’t repeat itself, it definitely rhymes.
Below are my five biggest takeaways from the exciting year that was 2024:
1. Stocks Climbed “The Wall of Worry”
Have you ever noticed that the precious metal commercials on television are always “doom and gloom” and try to predict the next big market crash or Great Depression? People fearmonger because fear is a powerful emotion that sells. Fear also can coerce investors into making misguided decisions.
· The Truth About US Equities
The US stock market trends higher over the long run. Of course, in the intermediate time frame, there are bull and bear markets. Bull markets usually last about four years and are followed by a bear market of approximately two years.
· Stocks Brush Aside Bad News in Bull Markets
Understanding the general market’s trend is far more valuable to investors than obsessing over the latest news. For example, in 2024, several geopolitical altercations broke out in the Middle East and Europe, yet aside from short-term volatility, stocks brushed them aside and trended higher. A straightforward way for investors to analyze the trend is to plot a 200-day moving average on a chart – above this metric means stocks are in a bull trend.
2. Pullbacks are Normal and Buyable in Bull Markets
2024 rewarded bulls with one of the most robust bull markets in recent memory. Nevertheless, regardless of how bullish a market is, pullbacks and profit-taking make riding them more difficult than most investors would believe.
The S&P 500 Index suffered a ~6% correction that started in April and a roughly 10% correction that kicked off in July. To successfully navigate a bull market, savvy investors must understand their time frame, manage their risk, and avoid chasing. Instead, investors can wait for “garden variety” corrections to dole out capital methodically.
3. Innovation Is Rewarded on Wall Street
In risk-on markets, companies on the cutting edge of technology and innovation tend to enjoy the best performance. Below are five examples:
· Space: Rocket manufacturer Rocket Labs went orbital and more than tripled as the commercial space industry morphed from dream to reality in 2024.
· Electric Vehicles: Tesla shares electrified investor portfolios by gaining more than 70% as consumers shift to environmentally friendly, and technology-heavy vehicles.
· Quantum Computing: In 2024, investors flocked to quantum computing stocks like Rigetti Computing in 2024. RGTI shares gained more than 600% as investors flocked to the idea of a computer that can perform calculations exponentially faster than legacy computers.
· Bitcoin: With the advent of the Bitcoin ETFs,2024 was the year that digital assets went mainstream. MicroStrategy, a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, gained as much as 500% as Bitcoin eclipsed the $100k mark for the first time in its history.
· AI: Artificial intelligence is still in the early innings, but was by far the broadest growth story in 2024. SoundHoundAI, a company focused on AI-powered voice assistance, increased sevenfold.
4. Valuations Are *NOT* a Timing Device
A common and expensive mistake that amateur investors constantly make is to sell stocks, or worse short them, based on valuation alone. In a bull market, valuations get stretched to the upside. In addition, investors are willing to pay a premium for growth stocks, especially innovative ones with high forward EPS expectations like Nvidia (NVDA). Despite a P/E ratio north of 50x, NVDA was again a top performer in 2024.
5. Economic Numbers are Stale and Can Be Inaccurate
2024 was a fantastic example of how economic numbers are lagging and of little value to investors. Early in the year, stubborn inflation was a primary concern among Wall Street pundits. Inflation eventually cooled dramatically; however, by the time it was reported, the market had already rallied significantly.
Even if government economic numbers were useful in real-time, 2024 proved that not all of them can be trusted by investors. For example, the Labor Department overstated the number of US jobs added several times throughout the year. In one instance, the Labor Department revised jobs downward by nearly 30%!
“I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over.” ~ Paul Tudor Jones
Rather than focusing on stale and inaccurate economic data, savvy investors should use trend filters to analyze the stock market unbiasedly. Furthermore, investors should be hyper-focused on the Federal Reserve and their monetary policy stance because bull markets thrive on liquidity.
Conclusion
Like any year, 2024 was full of twists and turns. However, investors can gain much knowledge and experience by reviewing the key themes throughout the year.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. All information is current as of the date of herein and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Zacks Investment Research does not engage in investment banking, market making or asset management activities of any securities. These returns are from hypothetical portfolios consisting of stocks with Zacks Rank = 1 that were rebalanced monthly with zero transaction costs. These are not the returns of actual portfolios of stocks. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. Visit https://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.
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