Chicago, IL – January 9, 2025 – Today, Zacks Equity Research Lithia Motors, Inc. LAD, Group 1 Automotive, Inc. GPI and Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. ABG.
While the Zacks Auto Retail and Wholesale industry has stayed afloat amid a stable demand for new and used vehicles, declining profit per unit and the uncertainty around the high cost of vehicle financing amid high interest rates remain key concerns for auto retailers. Lithia Motors, Inc., Group 1 Automotive, Inc. and Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. are pushing their digital and physical store footprint to reach a wider customer base and weather the headwinds clouding industry prospects.
Industry Overview
The performance of the automotive sector relies on its retail and wholesale networks. Companies in the Zacks Auto Retail and Wholesale Sales industry handle various operations through dealerships and retail chains. These include selling new and used vehicles, light trucks and auto parts, providing repair and maintenance services and facilitating vehicle financing.
As a consumer cyclical industry, its success is closely tied to economic conditions and business cycles. When disposable income is high, consumers and businesses are more likely to invest in big-ticket items, whereas tighter budgets lead to cuts in discretionary spending. Notably, the coronavirus pandemic has significantly reshaped the industry, driving a greater focus on e-commerce. The shift toward digitization is poised to remain a la
Factors Influencing Industry Prospects
Anticipated Decline in ICE Vehicle Sales: Per Cox Automotive, while the sales of electric and hybrid vehicles are expected to rise in 2025, the sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will hit a record low to reach 75% of total sales volume. Dealers holding ICE inventories have to reduce their prices to avoid inventory build-up, which might hurt their margins.
Affordability Challenges: Customers tend to put off spending on vehicles in a high-interest-rate environment due to the heavy cost of vehicle financing. Despite the three consecutive interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve in 2024, the interest rate remains much higher than the pre-pandemic level.
In December 2024, the Fed reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points to bring it down to a range of 4.25-4.5%, which still remains higher than the pre-pandemic range of around 2%. The Fed anticipates only two interest rate cuts in 2025. With only a couple of rate reductions ahead in 2025, the cost of vehicle financing will likely remain higher. This might prompt customers to delay vehicle purchases, thereby impacting the auto retail industry.
Expanding Market Presence: On the brighter side, auto dealers are tapping new markets through strategic acquisitions. This move is helping them improve their market share and enhance their portfolio. Also, the digital presence is helping them reach a wider customer base to further boost profitability and market presence.
Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Dim Near-Term Prospects
The Zacks Auto Retail & Whole Sales industry is part of the broader Zacks Auto-Tires-Trucks sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #177, which places it in the bottom 29% of around 250 Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates dull near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
The industry’s position in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of a negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Looking at the aggregate earnings estimate revisions, it appears that analysts are pessimistic about this group’s earnings growth potential. The industry’s earnings estimates for 2025 have declined 30.80% over the past year.
Despite the industry’s weakness, we will present a few stocks that you might consider adding to your watchlist. Before that, let’s discuss the industry’s recent stock market performance and valuation picture.
Industry Lags Sector and the S&P 500
The Zacks Auto Retail & Whole Sales industry has underperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite as well as the Auto, Tires and Truck sector over the past year. The industry has returned 8.7% over this period compared with the sector and the S&P 500’s growth of 26.2% and 26.9%, respectively.
Industry's Current Valuation
Since automotive companies are debt-laden, it makes sense to value them based on the enterprise value/earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio.
On the basis of the trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA, the industry is currently trading at 8.39X compared with the S&P 500’s 18.67X and the sector’s trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 22X.
Over the past five years, the industry has traded as high as 9.08X, as low as 6.51X and at a median of 7.08X.
3 Stocks to Consider Right Now
Lithia: It is one of the leading automotive retailers of new and used vehicles, and related services in the United States. The auto retailer’s diversified product mix and multiple income streams reduce its risk profile and position it for long-term growth. Its Driveway e-commerce platform allows customers to purchase or sell vehicles and schedule services online, boosting Lithia’s profitability and market presence. Strategic acquisitions are also significantly increasing its market share and enhancing its portfolio.
LAD currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and has a Value Score of A. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 8.08% and 17.74%, respectively. The consensus mark for LAD’s 2025 EPS has moved north by 97 cents over the past 60 days.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Group 1: It is one of the leading automotive retailers in the world, with operations primarily located in the United States and the United Kingdom. The company generates income from businesses, including used and new vehicle retail, finance, insurance, as well as automotive repair and maintenance. The diversified portfolio positions it well for top- and bottom-line growth. The acquisitions of dealerships and franchises to expand and optimize its portfolio are likely to boost the firm’s prospects.
GPI currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and has a Value Score of A. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 11.33% and 5.27%, respectively. The consensus mark for GPI’s 2025 EPS has moved north by 25 cents over the past 30 days.
Asbury: It is one of the largest automotive retailers of new and used vehicles, and related services in the United States. The launch of Clicklane, its end-to-end e-commerce platform, ensures a true online car-buying and selling experience. In the third quarter of 2024, Asbury retailed nearly 13,000 units through the platform, rising 13% year over year. The 2021 acquisition of Larry H. Miller Dealerships bolstered Asbury’s regional footprint and expanded its presence in the high-growth Western markets.
ABG currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and has a Value Score of A. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 2.70% and 7.23%, respectively.
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