Chicago, IL – April 28, 2025 – Today, Zacks Equity Research discusses Costco Wholesale Corp. COST, Target Corp. TGT, Dollar General Corp. DG and Burlington Stores, Inc. BURL.
Industry: Discount Retail
Link: https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2455955/4-retail-discount-stocks-to-watch-as-industry-juggles-tariff-woes
The Retail – Discount Stores industry is juggling shifting consumer behaviors, stiff competition and evolving tariff policies that are expected to influence the sector’s trajectory. Inflation continues to weigh on household budgets, prompting more cautious spending, even in traditionally resilient discount categories.
At the same time, rising labor and sourcing costs remain key hurdles for retailers operating on thin margins. For discount retailers to regain momentum, rebuilding consumer confidence and spending capacity will be crucial, supported by strategic pricing, inventory optimization and operational efficiencies to foster a more resilient performance in the months ahead.
Industry participants have been focusing on deepening engagements with consumers, adding more compelling products, and enhancing digital and data analytics capabilities. Inventory management, supply-chain enhancement, cost-structure realignment and investments to accelerate digitization have been working in favor of companies like Costco Wholesale Corp., Target Corp., Dollar General Corp. and Burlington Stores, Inc.
The Retail – Discount Stores industry is a significant segment within the retail sector that caters to price-conscious consumers seeking value-for-money products. These stores specialize in offering a wide range of merchandise, including groceries, household items, apparel, electronics, cleaning products, pet supplies and more, at discounted prices compared to traditional retail outlets.
Discount stores operate on a low-cost business model, focusing on cost-efficient operations, bulk purchasing and streamlined supply chains to offer competitive pricing. These stores often carry both national and private-label brands, providing a mix of products to cater to a diverse customer base. The Retail – Discount Stores industry has shown resilience, even during economic downturns, as consumers tend to prioritize value-oriented shopping.
Muted Consumer Demand Raises Revenue Concerns: The effects of inflation and geopolitical concerns continue to impact consumer spending activity, which is crucial for the retail sector. The industry's outlook heavily relies on consumer purchasing power, now strained by higher prices that are putting pressure on family budgets and dampening demand.
This situation is further compounded by a decline in U.S. consumer sentiment owing to rising apprehension about the economic outlook, exacerbated by trade tensions and tariffs. According to the University of Michigan’s preliminary report, the consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.8, a notable decline from March’s 57.0, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline.
Cost Overhang Likely to Keep Margins Under Pressure: Companies in the industry are vying for a bigger share on attributes such as price, products and speed to market. The increasing dominance of e-commerce players has made the retail discount space highly competitive. This has compelled many players to strengthen their digital ecosystem, and boost shipping and delivery capabilities. While these endeavors drive sales, they entail high costs.
Apart from these, higher marketing, advertising and other store-related expenses might compress margins. However, companies have been focusing on undertaking initiatives to mitigate cost-related challenges. These include streamlining operational structures, optimizing supply networks and adopting effective pricing policies.
Consumers Seek Better Bargains: Consumers are increasingly seeking better bargains, prompting industry players to focus on offering discounted prices to attract low- to middle-income groups looking for value and convenience amid rising prices. To meet this demand, retailers are innovating with compelling products and enhancing their digital and data analytics capabilities, aiming to capture the attention of price-sensitive shoppers.
Digitization Key to Sector’s Resilient Growth: With the change in consumer shopping patterns, industry participants have been evolving to play dual in-store and online roles. Companies are increasingly directing resources toward digital platforms, accelerating fleet optimization and enhancing their supply chains. Initiatives to expand delivery options, such as curbside pickup and ship-to-home orders, along with contactless payment solutions, have proven beneficial.
Retailers are also investing in store renovations, improved checkouts and mobile point-of-sale capabilities to keep physical stores relevant. By focusing on consumers' product preferences and their inclination toward online shopping, retailers are replenishing shelves with in-demand merchandise and ramping up investments in digitization to drive growth.
The Zacks Retail - Discount Stores industry is housed within the broader Zacks Retail – Wholesale sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #167, which places it in the bottom 32% of more than 250 Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates drab near-term prospects. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
The industry’s positioning in the bottom 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries is a result of the negative earnings outlook for the constituent companies in aggregate. Since the beginning of 2025, the industry’s earnings estimate has declined by 5.6%.
Before we present a few stocks that you may want to consider for your portfolio, let’s take a look at the industry’s recent stock-market performance and valuation picture.
The Zacks Retail – Discount Stores industry has outperformed the broader Retail – Wholesale sector and the Zacks S&P 500 composite over the past year.
Stocks in this industry have collectively advanced 15.8%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Retail – Wholesale sector has risen 11.5%, and the S&P 500 has rallied 5.5% in the said time frame.
Based on a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is commonly used for valuing retail stocks, the industry is currently trading at 31.47 compared with the S&P 500’s 19.94 and the sector’s 22.09.
Over the last five years, the industry has traded as high as 33.05X and as low as 21.19X, with the median being 25.40X.
Costco: The discount retailer’s growth strategies, better price management and decent membership trends have been contributing to its performance. These factors have been aiding this Issaquah, WA-based company in registering decent sales numbers. The company's distinctive membership business model and pricing power set it apart from traditional players. We believe a favorable product mix, steady store traffic, pricing strength and strong liquidity should benefit Costco.
Costco has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 0.8%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for current financial-year revenues and earnings per share (EPS) suggests growth of 7.8% and 11.6%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. Shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have surged 33.8% in the past year. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Target: Minneapolis, MN-based Target has been actively evolving its business model to remain competitive in the ever-changing retail landscape. The company has been focused on enhancing its omnichannel capabilities, launching new brands, renovating stores and expanding same-day delivery options to provide a seamless shopping experience. Target's commitment to integrating advanced technologies like AI and machine learning is set to improve customer engagement and operational efficiency across its platform. These have been contributing to the top line.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Target’s current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. TGT has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.5%, on average. We note that shares of this Zacks Rank #3 company have declined 42.1% in the past year.
Dollar General: Thanks to its value-creating initiatives, defensive product mix and real estate growth strategy, Dollar General has the capabilities to gain market share. Its commitment to better pricing, private label offerings, effective inventory management and merchandise initiatives should drive sales. We remain encouraged by the host of initiatives such as DG Fresh, SKU rationalization and digitization that should yield same-store sales improvements. To further enhance profitability, the company is working to diversify its product mix, focusing on increasing non-consumable sales.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dollar General’s current financial-year sales suggests growth of 3.7% from the year-ago reported figure. DG has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.2%, on average. We note that shares of this Zacks Rank #3 company have fallen 33.9% in the past year.
Burlington Stores: Burlington Stores has demonstrated a strong ability to adapt to consumer trends, which gives it a competitive edge in the retail landscape. By staying in tune with customer preferences and adjusting its product offerings, the company is well-positioned to capture additional market share.
Burlington has skillfully balanced promotions with regular price sales, appealing to budget-conscious shoppers while protecting margins. Its strategic initiatives, including enhancing merchandising capabilities and optimizing store operations, have supported revenue growth. With targeted store openings, relocations and real-time inventory management, Burlington has seized opportunities and improved store productivity.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Burlington Stores’ current financial-year revenues and EPS suggests growth of 7.8% and 12.6%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figure. Burlington Stores has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 17.9%, on average. Shares of this Zacks Rank #3 company have rallied 20% in the past year.
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Target Corporation (TGT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Dollar General Corporation (DG) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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