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This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:
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Getting old sucks, and I don't like it one bit.
My hair is thinning. I don't wake up at 1:45 a.m. each day with the same fiery energy to obsess over markets and stocks. I am down to eating red meat three times a month "just because" it's what people have told me is the right thing to do at this point in life.
From what I can tell, one of the only positives of getting old is experience.
And my experience in analyzing and reporting on markets and leaders for more than a decade tells me that investors have become fully engulfed in an AI-fueled tech bubble.
To be fair, this feels like a much different bubble than the cannabis and crypto stock bubbles of years gone by, as tech giants like Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) have real money-minting business models. Their leaders also aren't inexperienced dopes (see the cryptosphere's bad actors of the last two years).
But make no mistake: We are in a bubble, and it could end badly at some point.
Here are some of the elements I see to support this view.
Everything rallies, but should it?
Nvidia shares ripped 15% higher last Thursday after earnings. The report sent the broader market ripping higher too.
Nvidia rivals AMD (AMD) and Arm (ARM) saw strong bids. New hot Yahoo Finance ticker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) exploded by 36%. Even Intel (INTC) caught some Nvidia tailwinds. And shares of Meta (META), which has been out in front in buying Nvidia chips, shot higher as well.
Doesn't this all look insane and feel akin to blind buying by FOMO traders?
In a normal functioning market, Nvidia doing amazingly is bad news for competitors such as AMD and Intel. Nvidia is selling more of its chips, meaning fewer sales opportunities for rivals. Shouldn't their stocks drop?
Just because Meta owns and uses some new Nvidia chips, how is that going to positively impact its earnings and cash flow over the next four quarters? Will it at all?
The point is that investors are acting irrationally as Nvidia serves up eye-popping financial figures and the hype machine descends on social media. It makes sense until it doesn't, and that is classic bubble action.
Justifying inflated valuations
Still not convinced this is an AI-fueled tech bubble?
Then cast your eyes on the typical Wall Street action of justifying ever-higher valuation multiples on stocks.