Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX:YAL) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (A$, Millions)
AU$1.15b
AU$936.8m
AU$823.3m
AU$759.9m
AU$724.8m
AU$706.9m
AU$700.2m
AU$701.0m
AU$707.0m
AU$716.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Est @ -27.41%
Est @ -18.41%
Est @ -12.11%
Est @ -7.71%
Est @ -4.62%
Est @ -2.46%
Est @ -0.95%
Est @ 0.11%
Est @ 0.85%
Est @ 1.37%
Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 6.9%
AU$1.1k
AU$820
AU$674
AU$582
AU$520
AU$474
AU$440
AU$412
AU$388
AU$368
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$5.8b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.9%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$17b÷ ( 1 + 6.9%)10= AU$8.8b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$15b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of AU$6.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 41% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
ASX:YAL Discounted Cash Flow December 15th 2024
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Yancoal Australia as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.043. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Yancoal Australia
Strength
Currently debt free.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Australian market.
Looking Ahead:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Yancoal Australia, there are three important factors you should consider:
Future Earnings: How does YAL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
