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XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) last week reported its latest yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Revenues came in 6.0% below expectations, at R$16b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of R$8.23 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for XP
Following the latest results, XP's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of R$19.1b in 2025. This would be a notable 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 9.6% to R$9.21. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$19.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$9.21 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$17.87. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on XP, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$24.80 and the most bearish at US$13.43 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that XP is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 18% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 18% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.7% annually. So although XP is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$17.87, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.