Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of WPP plc (LON:WPP) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (£, Millions)
UK£905.6m
UK£1.05b
UK£691.0m
UK£907.0m
UK£887.7m
UK£880.1m
UK£880.4m
UK£886.1m
UK£895.8m
UK£908.3m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x4
Analyst x4
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ -2.13%
Est @ -0.86%
Est @ 0.03%
Est @ 0.66%
Est @ 1.09%
Est @ 1.40%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 8.1%
UK£838
UK£895
UK£547
UK£664
UK£601
UK£551
UK£510
UK£475
UK£444
UK£416
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£5.9b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.1%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£15b÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)10= UK£7.1b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is UK£13b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of UK£8.2, the company appears quite undervalued at a 33% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
LSE:WPP Discounted Cash Flow November 20th 2024
The Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at WPP as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.239. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for WPP
Strength
Debt is well covered by cash flow.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Media market.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the British market.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Dividends are not covered by earnings.
Annual revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years.
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For WPP, we've put together three fundamental aspects you should explore:
Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for WPP (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does WPP's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every British stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
