World leaders from New Delhi to Brussels facing tariffs from President Donald Trump’s administration are watching Canada to get a preview of what happens when you hit back.
Canadian officials have gone hostile in their responses to Trump’s trade war. Ontario Premier Doug Ford slapped a 25% charge on electricity exports to make power more expensive for people in New York and two other states — earning the president’s ire. Mark Carney, the incoming prime minister, called the US “a country we can no longer trust,” and said his new government will keep its retaliatory tariffs in place “until the Americans show us respect.”
On Tuesday, the brinkmanship seemed to pay off: Trump started the day threatening to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, but by day’s end both sides had pulled back. Ford suspended the electricity tax, prompting Trump to say “I respect that” and drop the metals levy back to 25%.
Mélanie Joly, the foreign minister, has a simple message for other nations listening to Trump’s threats against Canada: “You’re next.”
But it wasn’t meant to get to this. For months, Joly, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and other officials made a series of trips to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort and then to the US capital in an unprecedented charm offensive that aimed to avert a tariff war and address border-security concerns from Trump and his team. It made little difference.
Trump imposed 25% tariffs on many Canadian products last week — citing drug-trafficking and the border as his reasons — and is now set to go ahead with broad levies on foreign steel and aluminum on Wednesday morning.
The mood in Canada has shifted over the past month as Trump and his officials followed through on tariff threats and continued to make taunts about turning Canada into the 51st US state. Public opinion in the nation of about 42 million has turned angry, with voters demanding politicians stand up to the US president.
Consider the case of Wab Kinew, the premier of Manitoba. When he and the other 12 provincial leaders visited Washington in mid-February, he brought a message of peace. “We’re here extending that warm and hearty handshake, we’re trying to make friends,” Kinew said at the time. “In grade school, we didn’t make friends by threatening to hit anybody.”
Last week, after Trump implemented the first round of tariffs against Canada, Kinew ordered the removal of US-made alcohol from stores in the province. And then he openly mocked Trump — holding up a copy of his signature in the same way that Trump does when he signs executive orders in the White House, while members of his government clapped on cue.
British Columbia Premier David Eby has worked overtime to relay the nation’s frustration, and his own. “We’re going to ensure that the Americans understand how pissed off we are,” he said.
Other countries have played it cooler on the trade war, at least in public. Mexico has been subject to parallel White House complaints and threats of 25% tariffs, and also bolstered its border measures in a bid to placate Trump. But unlike Canada, it hasn’t yet announced counter-tariffs.
Trump cited “respect” for Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum as he exempted goods covered by the North American trade agreement from the new 25% levies. But he’s kept on insulting Trudeau, claiming he’s done a “terrible job” for Canada and listing ways he feels Canada is “cheating” the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal the three countries negotiated during Trump’s first term.
With Mexico spared the same level of US aggression as Canada, experts are divided on the best long-term tactic. The question is whether Canada has no choice but to embrace brinkmanship to secure a better deal, or whether the less-friendly approach just provokes Trump into inflicting more damage.
“I think what Claudia Sheinbaum has done has been a much better move. She’s been a much more diplomatic, serious leader,” said David Collins, a professor who specializes in international trade and investment law at City St. George’s, University of London.
For Canada, the only way to resolve the issue is to urgently renegotiate the USMCA trade deal, Collins said — a process that Trudeau delayed, he argued, when he announced his resignation on Jan. 6. and paused Parliament while his Liberal Party chose a successor.
Carney, the winner of that race, was asked in January by the BBC whether the UK can avoid becoming a Trump target if it just stays quiet. His reply: “Good luck with that.”
Kevin Milligan, an economics professor at the University of British Columbia, agrees and believes the proof is in what just happened with Ontario. The provincial government’s action to penalize US buyers of electricity brought the wrath of Trump, but it also pushed the situation to the top of the news agenda. Ford, the Ontario premier, is now scheduled to meet with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday.
Trump “just showed us where he is weak,” Milligan said in an interview on Tuesday shortly before Ford and Lutnick announced the détente. “He’s very upset about electricity. Good. Then we’ve got to poke electricity even harder.”
Trump has said he will erect “reciprocal tariffs” in April — tariffs that are commensurate with what the administration says are trade barriers put up by other countries. That is likely to tee up disputes between the US and a wide array of trading partners.
“A good lesson to draw from Canada is building a sense of unity across those countries,” Milligan said. “They should push back, but push back in a united way, and that’s where you’re going to have the most chance for success.”
Joly, the foreign minister, has suggested that she wants to work with allies to try and coordinate a wider response to tariffs. Those other countries may be relieved they don’t face the patriotic fever gripping the US’s northern neighbor, where the issue isn’t just about trade but also Trump’s contention that the country should be an American state and that he’d use “economic force” to make that happen.
“It makes it very difficult to find those win-wins that you like to have, having raised the stakes like this,” said Milligan. “So we’re just going to push back as hard as we can.”
