In This Article:
Today we’re going to take a look at the well-established New World Development Company Limited (HKG:17). The company’s stock saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the SEHK over the last few months. With many analysts covering the large-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Today I will analyse the most recent data on New World Development’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
View our latest analysis for New World Development
What is New World Development worth?
The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to my valuation model. It’s trading around 8.7% above my intrinsic value, which means if you buy New World Development today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is HK$10.08, then there isn’t really any room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because New World Development’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What does the future of New World Development look like?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of New World Development, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? 17 seems fairly priced right now, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to de-risk your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on the stock, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on 17 for a while, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. The price seems to be trading at fair value, which means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help crystalize your views on 17 should the price fluctuate below its true value.