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Only one week ago, after the first round of the group stage of the 2018 World Cup, the media narrative on viewership so far was: disaster. Ratings in the US were down 44% compared to the first round in 2014, according to Nielsen. Spanish-language broadcasts on Telemundo (owned by Comcast) saw a comparable drop. “World Cup ratings are a complete nightmare for Fox and Comcast,” wrote Bloomberg.
But then the trend changed.
Germany’s stoppage-time win over Sweden on June 23 pulled in 5.4 million viewers on Fox, making it the most-watched non-US men’s group stage game on English-language TV in 28 years. Argentina’s 2-1 win over Nigeria on June 26 got 2.6 million viewers, making it the most-watched non-US men’s third-round group stage game on English-language TV in 28 years.
Total viewership on June 27, which was Day 14 of this year’s World Cup, was up 34% over Day 14 of the 2014 World Cup, and up 22% from Day 14 in 2010. The bump was driven by big games between Mexico and Sweden, and South Korea and Germany. It was the most-watched Day 14 of a World Cup since 2006. Telemundo also saw a reversal in trend, and its best ever Monday daytime viewership on June 25, with an average 1.4 million viewers for World Cup coverage.
By the end of the full group stage on Thursday night, Fox says, viewership on Fox was up 1% overall compared to the average of the last four World Cups, including the U.S. matches from past years.
To be sure, a 1% bump may not sound like much, but it bucks the larger trend we’re seeing in all live sports viewership.
Ratings are trending downward for the NFL, and it can’t just be about politics and kneeling, because ratings are also down for Nascar, Major League Baseball, and college football. Even the Olympics are taking a hit: PyeongChang 2018 was the least-watched Winter Games ever.
In light of that trend, the large dip in viewership for the first round of the group stage should not have been shocking to anyone. Yes, it hurt Fox that the U.S. wasn’t in it. But there were additional factors: the tougher time difference for U.S. viewers this year (the games are in Russia) vs 2014 (Brazil); and many games were on FS1, a channel viewers can’t find as easily as ESPN.
The improvement after the first round suggests that the US team being absent only damaged U.S. interest during the early stages. Now that the stakes are higher and the games are closer, viewers are paying attention. Fox is also touting big growth in its streaming viewership: June 27 was the highest day for authenticated streaming viewership in the history of Fox Sports. It even appears that Major League Baseball on Fox and FS1 is seeing a World Cup bump.