Women’s labor force participation pattern 'hiding in plain sight'

The labor market has largely recovered since COVID-19 hit, but some disparities between men and women still remain.

The labor force participation rate for women in their prime working years (ages 24-54) hit a record high of 78.1% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a percentage point higher than the rate pre-COVID. But women's participation fell to 77.9% the following month, while there was an uptick in men's participation.

Although it may seem like a blip at first, researchers say this fluctuation is actually part of a long-running pattern: Women's participation in the labor market tends to decline during the summer, whereas the participation rate for men remains pretty consistent.

A working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) found that in the summer months between May and July, women's labor force participation rate dropped 1.1% on average between 1989 and 2019. That's equivalent to almost a third of the decline in the prime-age female employment rate during the Great Recession.

The researchers attribute this shift to increased demands at home. School closures, coupled with the lack of affordable childcare options, pull parents out of the workplace and into caregiver roles, a responsibility that falls disproportionately on mothers.

This summer decline often gets lost in the seasonal adjustment, but the non-adjusted data depicts a clear pattern.

“This was a pattern that was hiding in plain sight,” said Melanie Wasserman, an assistant professor at the UCLA Anderson School of Management and co-author of the NBER paper. “This is something that is visually obvious from just staring at the non-seasonally adjusted data, which is kind of remarkable.”

Caregiving demands

Data collected since 1994 from the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey showed that “taking care of house or family” was the primary explanation for the decrease in labor participation among prime-working-age women, specifically for mothers of school-age children during the summer.

“It's really hard to progress equally in the workforce with male counterparts when you're essentially doing a second and third shift job at home, caring for your family when you're not at work,” Misty Heggeness, associate professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Kansas, said.

The caregiving demand is greater for those with young children. Mothers with children under five years old had a far lower participation rate during the month of May than mothers of older children, the Brookings Institution found. And women without children had the highest overall participation rate, which saw little fluctuation during the summer.