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Shareholders might have noticed that Winpak Ltd. (TSE:WPK) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.9% to CA$40.64 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$1.1b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.7% to hit US$2.35 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
View our latest analysis for Winpak
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Winpak's three analysts is for revenues of US$1.19b in 2025. This reflects a reasonable 5.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$2.37, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.20b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.59 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$53.55, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Winpak analyst has a price target of CA$54.67 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$52.86. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Winpak's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.2% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.7% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Winpak is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.