In a report published Thursday, Pacific Crest analyst Andy Hargreaves commented on who stands to win and lose after it was reported Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) intends to drop its bid to acquire Time Warner Cable Inc (NYSE: TWC).
According to Hargreaves, a failed bid would be viewed as a "slight negative" for the cable companies as it would imply an environment of more strict regulatory oversight, resulting in lower broadband pricing power. The analyst added that broadband pricing is a key growth driver for cable companies, so any perceived limitation of future price hikes could pressure trading multiples for cable company stocks, including Comcast and Time Warner.
Comcast confirmed Friday morning that the deal has been pulled.
See Also: Comcast, Time Warner Move Higher Amid Dissolution Of Acquisition
Time Warner Loses
Absent an acquisition (or even the presence of M&A speculation), shares of Time Warner could trade at or below a 7.0x EV/EBITDA multiple, implying a fair value of $134. Meanwhile, many investors are assuming Charter Communications, Inc. (NASDAQ: CHTR) will provide a "backup" offer if the Comcast offer is dropped. While this is possible, the analyst doesn't see any "significant rationale" for Charter to pay a premium to the current market price of around $149.
Netflix Can Breathe A Sigh Of Relief
Hargreaves noted that a combined Comcast and Time Warner entity would generate "significant" scale to invest in content and technology. However, as a standalone company, Comcast's competitive positioning against Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is lower than it would be as a much larger business. In other words, Comcast's "less imposing scale" is a "slight positive" for Netflix.
Rovi's Guidance Anticipated A Merger
According to Hargreaves, Rovi Corporation (NASDAQ: ROVI)'s 2015 guidance anticipated Time Warner Cable subscribers falling under the Comcast umbrella and become non-paying subscribers.
Comcast ending its acquisition anticipations will result in Time Warner's subscribers continuing to generate revenue and cash for Rovi through at least the end of September. The analyst added that this could add $5 million to its 2015 operating profit and $0.05 to 2015 earnings per share.
In addition, Comcast as a standalone company should provide a "more comfortable" negotiating counter-party for Rovi.
Related Link: Will Telecom Bundling Eventually Kill Cable?
No Impact To AT&T/DirecTV
Hargreaves also stated that Comcast dropping its bid for Time Warner won't affect the AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) and DIRECTV (NASDAQ: DTV) merger and the proposed combination will "go through as submitted."