Wilmington has the worst office vacancy of this millennium. So why's everyone so happy?

You’d be forgiven for being worried.

In Wilmington, office rents have dipped. Demand is flat. And area office vacancy is as high as it’s been in decades.

Ever since a worldwide pandemic turned remote work into “the new normal” or perhaps a human right, prognosticators have warned of doom for the traditional office — and perhaps also for downtowns whose storefronts rely on vibrant office life. Vacancy has risen to record levels all over the country, as 10-year leases come due and businesses shrink their office needs or disappear entirely.

Wilmington’s topline numbers can look particularly grim. By the end of last year, between 28% and 34% of Wilmington’s central business district office space stood empty, according to year-end reports from two of the nation’s largest real estate companies, Newmark and CBRE.

The Wilmington-area vacancy is worse than any time Newmark has tracked in the past 20 years, including the 2008 financial crisis. Vacancy in the city's central business district is well above the national average of 19.6% and worse than any other significant population center around Philadelphia. The only exception is Pennsylvania's tiny Plymouth Meeting, with a 40% vacancy rate in office buildings near the mall.

But when you talk to Wilmington’s biggest holders and builders of office space, some of them couldn’t be happier.

“We had one of our best years ever in leasing last year,” said Chris Buccini, one of the founding partners of the Buccini/Pollin Group, Wilmington's most prominent developer. “It's historic. Maybe in 25 years, we've had one or two years better than this one.”

A graph of vacancy in the greater Wilmington market over the past 20 years, tracked by real estate company Newmark. As of the end of 2023, the vacancy is the highest its been duirng this period. Wilmington's downtown vacancy is the highest in the market at 28%.
A graph of vacancy in the greater Wilmington market over the past 20 years, tracked by real estate company Newmark. As of the end of 2023, the vacancy is the highest its been duirng this period. Wilmington's downtown vacancy is the highest in the market at 28%.

Buccini’s showpiece office space, the former Brandywine Building at 1000 N. West St., was more than half empty in 2017 before BPG bought it, and was in jeopardy of foreclosure. After a renovation, the building is now more than 90% filled, he said.

Wilmington’s relative petiteness and unique business environment puts the city on a different clock from the rest of the country, Buccini said. He sees a cycle in which a new wealth of apartments and high-end restaurants feeds demand for a premium office market whose business is already gangbusters.

He’s planning to add even more new office space in the coming years, he said — a sentiment rarely heard these days in American cities.

So which vision is right? Is Wilmington a boomtown on the verge, or a city whose office market is hitting bottom after historic post-pandemic vacancy? Both, perhaps, are true. It’s complicated. Here are the big trends that are driving Wilmington’s office market, and maybe downtown’s future.