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Let's talk about the popular Twilio Inc. (NYSE:TWLO). The company's shares received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NYSE over the last few months. The company is now trading at yearly-high levels following the recent surge in its share price. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. But what if there is still an opportunity to buy? Today we will analyse the most recent data on Twilio’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
See our latest analysis for Twilio
What Is Twilio Worth?
The stock is currently trading at US$139 on the share market, which means it is overvalued by 27% compared to our intrinsic value of $109.62. This means that the opportunity to buy Twilio at a good price has disappeared! But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Twilio’s share price is quite volatile, this could mean it can sink lower (or rise even further) in the future, giving us another chance to invest. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What does the future of Twilio look like?
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. In the upcoming year, Twilio's earnings are expected to increase by 99%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? TWLO’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above its fair value. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe TWLO should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards its real value can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on TWLO for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its true value, which means there’s no upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for TWLO, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.