Why TransCanada Stock Rose Nearly 20% in January and a Diverse Set of Midstream Stocks Followed Close Behind

In This Article:

What happened

The shares of giant diversified Canadian midstream company TransCanada Corporation (NYSE: TRP) rose an impressive 19% in January, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. That was a huge turn from last year, when the S&P 500 Index's late-year swoon helped to push TransCanada's stock down a painful 26%. For reference, the S&P was down around 6% in 2018 and rose roughly 8% in January.

Two people looking at a computer screen with a stock graph on it.
Two people looking at a computer screen with a stock graph on it.

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There was a similar trend for smaller midstream player Phillips 66 Partners LP (NYSE: PSXP). It was down 19% in 2018 and rose 16% in January. But the trend didn't hold for Sunoco LP (NYSE: SUN), which distributes gasoline. This limited partnership was off by 4% in 2018, two percentage points less than the broader market, and up 12% in January. Cheniere Energy Partners LP (NYSEMKT: CQP) and Cheniere Energy Inc. (NYSEMKT: LNG) were even further from the pack, up 12% and 11%, respectively, in January after posting gains of 21% and roughly 10%, respectively, in 2018.

So what

Without a doubt, the broader market had a big impact on the price movements of all of these midstream entities. In late 2018 investors shifted into a risk-off mind-set and pushed just about everything lower. That shifted as 2019 got underway, with investors again willing to take on risk in January. But when you step back from this group of midstream players, you can see that painting them all with the same brush doesn't make much sense. The performance disparities are the evidence that seals this deal.

SPY Chart
SPY Chart

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Take, for example, Cheniere Energy Partners and Cheniere Energy, the clear standouts here. These two are front and center in the effort to export U.S. natural gas. Cheniere Energy Partners owns and operates Sabine Pass, one of the first liquified natural gas (LNG) export facilities to get up and running in the United States. It started operations in late 2016, ramping up the facility through 2017 and 2018. Revenues have basically exploded higher after years of spending to build the Sabine Pass LNG export facility.

Cheniere Energy Partners has more capacity expansion plans on the books, as well. And virtually all of its cash flow is backed by long-term contracts. Things are looking pretty good for this partnership and that remains true no matter what happens to the broader market. Which is where general partner Cheniere Energy comes in. It is benefiting along with its controlled limited partnership, but to a lesser degree because it is also building an LNG export facility in Corpus Christi, Texas. That's a big expense, but if it plays out as well as the Sabine Pass investment, Cheniere Energy will eventually see huge cash flows backed by long-term contracts.