Why Thailand's latest coup is different this time
Why Thailand's latest coup is different this time

Business in Thailand usually isn't tarnished by politics, but the country's latest military coup comes in a drastically changed political milieu, with the Teflon status already showing scratches.

"This is quite different from coups we've seen earlier. This is a one-in-a-hundred-years type of political crisis," Ernest Bower, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said.

After more than seven months of political protests and two days of martial law, Thailand's army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha declared the military had seized power in a coup. Media reports said the leaders of the pro-government Red Shirts had been arrested. The country has now faced a total of 19 military coups, 12 successful, since it became a constitutional monarchy in 1932.

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"It's about who will be in power when the royal succession takes place," Bower told CNBC, adding the military doesn't want to risk having pro-government forces in power during the handover.

King Bhumibol Adulyadej has headed Thailand's constitutional monarchy for over 60 years, but the 86-year-old's health is failing. While he is revered across the country, his son, the crown prince, is less popular.

"The 500-pound gorilla in the room is the health of the king, how long he'll be around and who will follow," Steve Vickers, CEO of Steve Vickers & Associates, a risk mitigation consultancy, told CNBC.

Some anti-government protestors believe the monarchy's stature is threatened by the popularity of Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister ousted in a 2006 military coup and the brother of Yingluck Shinawatra, who was removed from the post earlier this month.

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"The (anti-government) Yellow Shirts think this is their last chance to 'fix things' before... the king passes away and we have a new monarch," Vickers said. "It's their last chance to change the constitution, to change the election system."

Another concern is the potential for violence as the pro-government Red Shirts are better organized than they were during the 2006 coup.

"The Red Shirts now appear to have the capacity not only to bring large-scale protests to the streets but also, we believe, to pursue a serious insurgency from its heartlands in the north of the country," Nomura said in a note Thursday. "If the Red Shirts conclude that they will never be allowed to prevail through the ballot box, direct action of one sort or another is likely to look to be the only option open to them."